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\u3010\u653f\u5c40\u301130\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u51b7\u6230\u843d\u5e55\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u774044\u5e74\u4f86\u7f8e\u8607\u722d\u9738\u7684\u5169\u6975\u683c\u5c40\u8d70\u5230\u7d42\u9ede\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8fce\u4f86\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u55ae\u6975\u6642\u523b\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u5c31\u9023\u63d0\u51fa\u9019\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u300a\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u90f5\u5831\u300b\u653f\u6cbb\u8a55\u8ad6\u5bb6\u67ef\u7ff0\u9ed8\u4e5f\u9810\u8a00\uff0c\u55ae\u6975\u6642\u523b\u4e0d\u6703\u9577\u4e45\uff0c\u9810\u6599\u4e16\u754c\u6700\u7d42\u9084\u662f\u6703\u9032\u5165\u7576\u6642\u8f3f\u8ad6\u71b1\u8b70\u7684\u591a\u6975\u79e9\u5e8f\u300230\u5e74\u5f8c\u7684\u4eca\u65e5\uff0c\u591a\u6975\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u69cb\u60f3\u5df2\u9010\u6f38\u690d\u6839\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u3001\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u3001\u6b50\u76df\u4ee5\u81f3\u5370\u5ea6\u7b49\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff0c\u4f46\u897f\u65b9\u5b78\u754c\u4ee5\u81f3\u8f3f\u8ad6\u754c\u5c0d\u6b64\u4e0d\u4e4f\u8cea\u7591\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u5d1b\u8d77\u4e26\u6709\u8ffd\u4e0a\u7f8e\u570b\u8d85\u7d1a\u5927\u570b\u5730\u4f4d\u4e4b\u52e2\uff0c\u91cd\u56de\u5169\u6975\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u300c\u65b0\u51b7\u6230\u300d\u8ad6\u8ff0\u66f4\u53d7\u77da\u76ee\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4e2d\u570b\u5b78\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u300c\u5169\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\u300d\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u5373\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4f5c\u70ba\u9802\u982d\u5169\u6975\uff0c\u4fc4\u3001\u6b50\u3001\u5370\u7b49\u5247\u7d44\u6210\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c64\u7684\u300c\u591a\u6975\u300d\u67b6\u69cb\u3002<\/p>\n

\u55ae\u6975\u6642\u523b\uff1a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f37\u6b0a\u672a\u4e0a\u4f4d \u7f8e\u66ab\u7368\u5927<\/h2>\n

\u5118\u7ba1\u8607\u806f\u8981\u52301991\u5e7412\u670826\u65e5\u624d\u6b63\u5f0f\u89e3\u9ad4\uff0c\u4f46\u65e9\u57281989\u5e74\u6771\u6b50\u5287\u8b8a\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8f3f\u8ad6\u5df2\u958b\u59cb\u69cb\u60f3\u672a\u4f86\u570b\u969b\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u3002\u7d93\u5178\u4f8b\u5b50\u4fbf\u662f\u67ef\u7ff0\u9ed8\uff08Charles Krauthammer\uff091990\u5e74\u8d77\u63d0\u51fa\u300c\u55ae\u6975\u6642\u523b\u300d\uff08unipolar moment\uff09\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u7f8e\u8607\u5169\u6975\uff08bipolar\uff09\u6642\u4ee3\u7d50\u675f\u4e4b\u521d\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u7acb\u5373\u9032\u5165\u591a\u6975\uff08multipolar\uff09\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9032\u5165\u7f8e\u570b\u4f5c\u70ba\u552f\u4e00\u8d85\u7d1a\u5927\u570b\u7684\u77ed\u66ab\u7368\u5927\u6642\u523b\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u300a\u5916\u4ea4\u4e8b\u52d9\u300b\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u66f4\u4ee5\u540c\u5e74\u6d77\u7063\u6230\u722d\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u8af7\u523a\u88ab\u5bc4\u671b\u6490\u8d77\u591a\u6975\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u5fb7\u570b\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u300c\u807d\u5230\u79d1\u5a01\u7279\u97ff\u8d77\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e0b\u69cd\u8072\u5f8c\u5c31\u5e7e\u4e4e\u90fd\u8eb2\u5728\u684c\u4e0b\u300d\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u7d93\u6fdf\u529b\u91cf\u672a\u5fc5\u6703\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u8ecd\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u90a3\u53ea\u662f\u5927\u570b\uff08great power\uff09\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u689d\u4ef6\u800c\u975e\u5145\u5206\u689d\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u904e\u67ef\u7ff0\u9ed8\u4ea6\u660e\u8a00\uff0c\u55ae\u6975\u6642\u523b\u4e0d\u6703\u9577\u4e45\uff0c\u9810\u6599\u4e16\u754c\u6700\u7d42\u9084\u662f\u9032\u5165\u591a\u6975\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u300c\u4e5f\u8a31\u5927\u7d04\u53e6\u4e00\u4e16\u4ee3\u5f8c\uff0c\u6703\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e9b\u5927\u570b\u8ddf\u7f8e\u570b\u4e26\u99d5\u9f4a\u9a45\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u5247\u9019\u4e16\u754c\u5728\u7d50\u69cb\u4e0a\u6703\u985e\u4f3c\u4e00\u6230\u524d\u7684\u6a23\u5b50\u300d\u3002\u6b64\u5f8c\u5c07\u8fd110\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4f5c\u70ba\u552f\u4e00\u8d85\u7d1a\u5927\u570b\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u770b\u4f86\u4ecd\u7262\u4e0d\u53ef\u7834\uff0c\u4f46\u5730\u5340\u5927\u570b\u62ac\u982d\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u9010\u6f38\u6210\u5f62\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u4e16\u754c\u5411\u591a\u6975\u9081\u9032\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\uff1a\u5730\u5340\u5217\u5f37\u62ac\u982d \u52e2\u529b\u96e3\u9054\u5168\u7403<\/h2>\n

\u52301990\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\uff0c\u4ee5\u300c\u6587\u660e\u885d\u7a81\u8ad6\u300d\u8457\u7a31\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u6cf0\u6597\u4ea8\u5ef7\u9813\uff08Samuel P. Huntington\uff09\u5c07\u55ae\u6975\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\uff09\u8207\u591a\u6975\u5169\u8a5e\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u300c\u4e00\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\u300d\uff08uni-multipolarity\uff09\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u300a\u5916\u4ea4\u4e8b\u52d9\u300b\u767c\u8868\u3008\u5b64\u7368\u7684\u8d85\u7d1a\u5927\u570b\u3009\u4e00\u6587\uff0c\u95e1\u8ff0\u4f55\u8b02\u300c\u4e00\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\u300d\u2014\u2014\u7f8e\u570b\u4f5c\u70ba\u552f\u4e00\u8d85\u7d1a\u5927\u570b\uff08\u55ae\u6975\uff09\u4f4d\u8655\u9802\u9ede\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u683c\u5c40\u5b58\u5728\u7531\u300c\u4e3b\u8981\u5340\u57df\u5f37\u6b0a\u300d\uff08major regional powers\uff09\u7d44\u6210\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c64\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u5728\u81ea\u8eab\u5340\u57df\u5177\u5353\u8d8a\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f46\u7121\u6cd5\u50cf\u7f8e\u570b\u822c\u5c07\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u570b\u529b\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ea8\u5ef7\u9813\u7576\u6642\u6240\u8209\u4f8b\u5b50\u5305\u62ec\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u300c\u6cd5\u5fb7\u96d9\u6838\u300d\u3001\u6b50\u4e9e\u5730\u5340\u7684\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u3001\u6771\u4e9e\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u53ca\uff08\u6216\u5305\u62ec\uff09\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5357\u4e9e\u7684\u5370\u5ea6\u7b49\u3002\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u9019\u5957\u570b\u969b\u79e9\u5e8f\u5e95\u4e0b\u9084\u6709\u7b2c\u4e09\u5c64\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u76ca\u5f80\u5f80\u8ddf\u66f4\u5f37\u5927\u5730\u5340\u5f37\u6b0a\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u300c\u6b21\u7d1a\u5340\u57df\u5f37\u6b0a\u300d\uff08secondary regional powers\uff09\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u4e4b\u65bc\u300c\u6cd5\u5fb7\u96d9\u6838\u300d\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u4e4b\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u3001\u97d3\u570b\u4e4b\u65bc\u65e5\u672c\u7b49\u4fbf\u662f\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5169\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\uff1a\u4e2d\u65b9\u5b78\u8005\u9996\u63d0 \u7a31\u83ef\u300c\u8d85\u7d1a\u5927\u570b\u300d<\/p>\n

\u5343\u79a7\u5e74\u5f8c\u4e2d\u570b\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u958b\u59cb\u885d\u64ca\u300c\u55ae\u6975\u300d\u4ee5\u81f3\u300c\u4e00\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\u300d\u7684\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u8f3f\u8ad6\u8fd1\u5e74\u9010\u6f38\u63a5\u53d7\u5c07\u4e2d\u570b\u7a31\u70ba\u53e6\u4e00\u300c\u8d85\u7d1a\u5927\u570b\u300d\uff08\u6216\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u300c\u5d1b\u8d77\u8d85\u7d1a\u5927\u570b\u300d\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u516c\u958b\u63d0\u51fa\u300c\u5169\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\u300d\uff08bi-multipolarity\uff09\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u5b78\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n

2011\u5e7412\u6708\uff0c\u6e05\u83ef\u5927\u5b78\u7576\u4ee3\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u9662\u9577\u95bb\u5b78\u901a\u5728\u300a\u74b0\u7403\u6642\u5831\u300b\u767c\u8868\u3008\u570b\u969b\u683c\u5c40\u7531\u4e00\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\u8f49\u5411\u5169\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\u3009\u4e00\u6587\uff0c\u5f62\u5bb92008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\u570b\u969b\u683c\u5c40\u51fa\u73fe\u65b0\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u5373\u7f8e\u570b\u55ae\u6975\u683c\u5c40\u660e\u986f\u5f31\u5316\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u7d9c\u5408\u5be6\u529b\u5dee\u8ddd\u7e2e\u5c0f\uff0c\u4f46\u5169\u570b\u540c\u6642\u62c9\u5927\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u570b\u7684\u5be6\u529b\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u95bb\u5b78\u901a\u76f8\u4fe1\u300c\u5f9e\u7269\u8cea\u5be6\u529b\u89d2\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4e00\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\u7684\u5be6\u529b\u683c\u5c40\u958b\u59cb\u5411\u5169\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\u6f14\u8b8a\uff0c\u591a\u6975\u5316\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u5c0f\u300d\u3002\u300a\u74b0\u6642\u300b\u5f15\u8ff0\u8a72\u6587\u7ae0\u5831\u9053\u6642\u7a31\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u5b78\u8005\u9996\u6b21\u516c\u958b\u64b0\u6587\u5c07\u4e2d\u570b\u5f62\u5bb9\u70ba\u300c\u8d85\u7d1a\u5927\u570b\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u8aaa\u6cd5\u6b64\u5f8c\u70ba\u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u65b9\u5b78\u8005\u63a1\u7d0d\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u5927\u5b78\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5b78\u9662\u526f\u9662\u9577\u91d1\u71e6\u69ae\u4e0d\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u767c\u8868\u8a8d\u540c\u300c\u5169\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\u300d\u7684\u8a00\u8ad6\uff0c\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5b78\u9662\u570b\u969b\u653f\u6cbb\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u6797\u5229\u6c11\u8207\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u5c0e\u5e2b\u738b\u5929\u8212\u66f4\u5728\u5167\u5730\u5b78\u8853\u671f\u520a\u64b0\u6587\uff0c\u5256\u6790\u4ed6\u5011\u773c\u4e2d\u300c\u5169\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\u300d\u683c\u5c40\u8ddf\u51b7\u6230\u7248\u672c\u7684\u300c\u5169\u8d85\u591a\u5f37\u300d\uff08\u4e8c\u4eba\u4e0d\u4ee5\u897f\u65b9\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u300c\u5169\u6975\u300d\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff09\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u5dee\u7570\u3002<\/p>\n

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