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\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u969b\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u8005\u5091\u7dad\u65af\uff08Robert Jervis\uff09\u5728\u5176\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u66fe\u63d0\u5230\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u5c0d\u5916\u6c7a\u7b56\u6642\u7d93\u5e38\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u8a8d\u77e5\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u300c\u8a8d\u77e5\u76f8\u7b26\u73fe\u8c61\u300d\uff08cognitive consistency\uff09\u7e3d\u50be\u5411\u5c07\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6b78\u5165\u539f\u6709\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u5728\u6c7a\u7b56\u5c64\u4e0d\u65b7\u88ab\u8907\u88fd\uff0c\u800c\u300c\u6b77\u53f2\u5305\u88b1\u73fe\u8c61\u300d\u50be\u5411\u5c07\u6027\u8cea\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u73fe\u5be6\u4e8b\u4ef6\u548c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e8b\u4ef6\u727d\u5f37\u5730\u806f\u7e6b\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u985e\u6bd4\uff08historical analogy\uff09\u3002\u5728\u4e2d\u65e5\u95dc\u4fc2\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u5275\u50b7\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u89e3\u8b80\u65e5\u672c\u5c0d\u53f0\u653f\u7b56\u6642\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u5c07\u5176\u64fa\u5728\u4e2d\u65e5\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u6069\u6028\u8108\u7d61\u4e2d\u4f86\u5be9\u8996\uff0c\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u554f\u984c\u4e0a\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u52d5\u4f5c\u5bb9\u6613\u7522\u751f\u7591\u616e\uff0c\u537b\u540c\u6642\u7121\u610f\u4e2d\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u65e5\u65b9\u5c0d\u83ef\u5916\u4ea4\u4e2d\u7684\u7d30\u81a9\u5e73\u8861\u4e4b\u8655\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u9700\u8981\u69cb\u7bc9\u7740\u773c\u65bc\u5fae\u89c0\u5c64\u9762\u7684\u5c0d\u65e5\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u548c\u6e96\u78ba\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\uff0c\u4e26\u548c\u65e5\u65b9\u4fdd\u6301\u5916\u4ea4\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u6e9d\u901a\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u554f\u984c\u4e0a\u51fa\u73fe\u5c0d\u65e5\u8aa4\u5224\uff01<\/p>\n

\u5f35\u671b<\/p>\n

\u65e5\u672c\u65e9\u7a3b\u7530\u5927\u5b78\u570b\u969b\u6559\u990a\u5b78\u90e8\u51c6\u6559\u6388<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

8\u6708\u521d\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u300a\u6771\u6d0b\u7d93\u6fdf\u300b\u96dc\u8a8c\u520a\u51fa\u7279\u8f2f\uff0c\u984c\u70ba\u300c\u53f0\u7063\u98a8\u96aa\u300d\uff08Taiwan Risk\uff09\uff0c\u8a73\u7d30\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e86\u300c\u53f0\u7063\u6709\u4e8b\u300d\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u5404\u500b\u9818\u57df\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u53f0\u6d77\u5c40\u52e2\u60e1\u5316\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u6b63\u53d7\u5230\u95dc\u6ce8\uff018\u67087\u81f39…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":110802,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[8],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110801"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=110801"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110801\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/110802"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=110801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=110801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=110801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}