{"id":22229,"date":"2016-10-25T21:55:34","date_gmt":"2016-10-25T21:55:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/2016\/10\/25\/%e7%be%8e%e6%80%bb%e7%bb%9f%e9%80%89%e4%b8%be%e6%9c%89%e9%ac%bc%e5%bc%95%e8%b5%b7%e5%85%b1%e9%b8%a3\/"},"modified":"2016-10-25T21:55:34","modified_gmt":"2016-10-25T21:55:34","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e6%80%bb%e7%bb%9f%e9%80%89%e4%b8%be%e6%9c%89%e9%ac%bc%e5%bc%95%e8%b5%b7%e5%85%b1%e9%b8%a3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=22229","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u6709\u9b3c\u5f15\u8d77\u5171\u9e23"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u4e00\u4f4d\u8bfb\u8005\u6765\u51fd\uff0c\u8d28\u7591\u6709\u5173\u534e\u4eba\u652f\u6301\u559c\u83b1\u8389‧\u67ef\u6797\u987f\u7684\u62a5\u5bfc\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u56db\u5468\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u670b\u53cb\u88e1\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u633a\u67ef\u7684\u3002<\/font><\/div>\n

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\u4ed6\u8be6\u5217\u4e86\u4ed6\u65e0\u6cd5\u633a\u67ef\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u4ed6\u4e5f\u8c08\u5230\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5a92\u4f53\u5728\u6c11\u8c03\u4e0a\u7684\u505a\u5047\u3002<\/font><\/div>\n

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\u4ee5\u6700\u65b0\u7684ABC\uff0f\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5\u6c11\u8c03\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c11\u8c03\u7ed3\u679c\u8bf4\uff0c\u559c\u83b1\u8389‧\u67ef\u6797\u987f\u652f\u6301\u7387\u9886\u5148\u5ddd\u666e12\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002<\/font><\/div>\n

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\u53ea\u662f\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5a92\u4f53\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4ee5\u5168\u56fd874\u540d\u300c\u4f1a\u79ef\u6781\u6295\u7968\u300d(likely voters)\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u62bd\u6837\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u591a\u8bbf\u95ee\u4e869%\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u9009\u6c11\u3002\u52a0\u4e0a\u6c11\u8c03\u672c\u8eab3.5%\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\uff0c\u67ef\u6797\u987f\u4e0e\u5ddd\u666e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\uff0c\u8fdc\u4e0d\u5982\u5a92\u4f53\u5e7f\u6cdb\u62a5\u5bfc\u7684\u67ef\u6797\u987f\u4ee512\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u9065\u9065\u9886\u5148\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c11\u8c03\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u515a\u6d3e\u503e\u5411\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u662f\u2500\u250036\uff1a27\uff1a31(\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\uff1a\u5171\u548c\u515a\uff1a\u72ec\u7acb)\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u3002<\/font><\/div>\n

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\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u7ef4\u57fa\u89e3\u89e3\u5bc6\u63ed\u9732\uff0c\u67ef\u6797\u987f\u9635\u8425\u523b\u610f\u64cd\u4f5c\u6c11\u8c03\u3002\u67ef\u6797\u987f\u7ade\u9009\u7ecf\u7406\u6ce2\u5fb7\u65af\u5854(John Podesta)\u5728\u7535\u90ae\u4e2d\u6307\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u5efa\u8bae\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u5e94\u8be5\u8d85\u91cf\u53d6\u6837\u300d(recommend oversamples for our polling)\u2026\u6309\u7167\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u5730\u533a\u7b49\u2026\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u5a92\u4f53\u6c11\u8c03\u6536\u5230\u6700\u5927\u6548\u76ca(so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling)\u3002\u300d<\/font><\/div>\n

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\u8fd9\u6216\u8bb8\u6b63\u662f\u5ddd\u666e\u4e00\u518d\u9ad8\u558a\u300c\u9009\u4e3e\u6709\u9b3c\u300d(rigged)\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4f46\u6216\u8bb8\u56e0\u4e3a\u5ddd\u666e\u5916\u5728\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u5f62\u8c61\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u53cd\u51fb\uff0c\u4e0d\u4fe1\u8005\u6052\u4e0d\u4fe1\u3002<\/font><\/div>\n

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\u8def\u900f\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5ddd\u666e\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u4ece\u524d\u4e00\u5468\u7684\u843d\u540e\u67ef\u6797\u987f7\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9(37%\u5bf944%)\uff0c\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u8ffd\u4e0a3\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u53ea\u843d\u540e4\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9(40%\u5bf944%)\u3002<\/font><\/div>\n

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