{"id":46281,"date":"2016-09-21T21:59:12","date_gmt":"2016-09-21T21:59:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/2016\/09\/21\/%e5%8c%97%e4%ba%ac%e6%97%b6%e9%97%b422%e6%97%a5%e5%87%8c%e6%99%a82%e7%82%b9-%e6%9c%80%e5%8f%af%e6%80%95%e4%ba%8b%e6%83%85%e6%88%96%e5%8f%91%e7%94%9f-2\/"},"modified":"2016-09-21T21:59:12","modified_gmt":"2016-09-21T21:59:12","slug":"%e5%8c%97%e4%ba%ac%e6%97%b6%e9%97%b422%e6%97%a5%e5%87%8c%e6%99%a82%e7%82%b9-%e6%9c%80%e5%8f%af%e6%80%95%e4%ba%8b%e6%83%85%e6%88%96%e5%8f%91%e7%94%9f-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=46281","title":{"rendered":"\u5317\u4eac\u65f6\u95f422\u65e5\u51cc\u66682\u70b9 \u6700\u53ef\u6015\u4e8b\u60c5\u6216\u53d1\u751f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4eca\u5929\uff08<\/span>9\u6708<\/span>21\u65e5\uff09\u5c06\u5f00\u59cb\u53ec\u5f00\u4e3a\u671f\u4e24\u5929\u7684\u8bae\u606f\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u65f6\u95f4\u5468\u56db\uff08<\/span>9\u6708<\/span>22\u65e5\uff09\u51cc\u6668<\/span>2:00\u516c\u5e03\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae\u3001\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u671f\u53ca\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\uff0c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8036\u4f26<\/span>2:30\u5206\u5c06\u53ec\u5f00\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u771f\u7684\u60ac\u4e86<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7ee7\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u60c5\u62a5\u6628\u5929\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8<\/span>23\u5bb6\u503a\u5238\u4e00\u7ea7\u4ea4\u6613\u5546\u4e2d\u7684\u4e24\u5458\uff0c\u5df4\u514b\u83b1\u548c\u6cd5\u56fd\u5df4\u9ece\u94f6\u884c\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u4e8e\u672c\u5468\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u9635\u8425\u7ee7\u7eed\u6269\u5927\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ebf\u4e07\u5bcc\u7fc1\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3001\u88ab\u8a89\u4e3a\u201c\u503a\u5238\u5927\u738b\u201d\u7684\u6bd4\u5c14\u00b7\u683c\u7f57\u65af\uff08<\/span>Bill Gross\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u660e\u5929\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u201c\u4ee5\u6211\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u770b\u8fbe\u5230<\/span>50%\u2026\u2026\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u683c\u7f57\u65af\u901a\u8fc7\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u63a8\u7279\u8d26\u53f7\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u683c\u7f57\u65af\u8fd1\u671f\u5efa\u8bae\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u629b\u552e\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u8d23\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u79f0\u8fd1\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u4e0e\u8d1f\u5229\u7387\u51fb\u57ae\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u3002\u4ed6\u9752\u7750\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u548c\u9ec4\u91d1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\u65f6\u9694\u4e03\u5e74\u591a\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u56f4\u7ed5\u7740\u5229\u7387\u65b9\u5411\u5c55\u5f00\u4e86\u610f\u5fd7\u4e0a\u7684\u8f83\u91cf\u3002\u7ee7\u53bb\u5e74<\/span>12\u6708\u52a0\u606f\u540e\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u521d\u8fd8\u9884\u6d4b\u4f1a\u6709\u56db\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff0c\u9762\u5bf9\u56fd\u5185\u5916\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf\u800c\u4e00\u6b21\u53c8\u4e00\u6b21\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\uff0c\u4f7f\u5b83\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u4fe1\u8a89\u626b\u5730\u7684\u5371\u9669\u3002\u5c31\u5728\u4e0a\u6708\uff0c\u8036\u4f26\u4e0e\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d<\/span>Stanley Fischer\u6697\u793a\u4eca\u5e74\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4e24\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8036\u4f26\u6765\u8bf4\u4eca\u665a\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u5e76\u4e0d\u597d\u8fc7\uff0c\u201c\u52a0\u4e0d\u52a0\u606f\u201d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u95ee\u9898\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e0e\u5176\u652f\u6301\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u51b3\u5b9a\u79f0\u4f5c\u4e00\u79cd\u653f\u6cbb\u624b\u6bb5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8fd8\u5c06\u53d1\u5e03\u6700\u65b0\u201c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u201d\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u6216\u5c06\u663e\u793a\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u9884\u6d4b\u5230\u4eca\u5e74\u5e95\u5c06\u6709\u4e00\u6b21<\/span>0.25\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u9884\u6d4b\u4f1a\u88ab\u666e\u904d\u8be0\u91ca\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u5728<\/span>12\u6708\u4efd\u4f1a\u8bae\u5347\u606f\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u524d\u4e00\u5468\u53ec\u5f00\u7684<\/span>11\u6708\u4f1a\u8bae\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f46\u8036\u4f26\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u8ba9\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u6697\u793a<\/span>12\u6708\u4efd\u5347\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u653f\u6cbb\u538b\u529b\u3002\u5171\u548c\u515a\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u7279\u6717\u666e\u58f0\u79f0\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3a\u4e86\u652f\u6301\u603b\u7edf\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u4ece\u800c\u5236\u9020\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u865a\u5047\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8036\u4f26\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u804c\u4f4d\u662f\u7531\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u59d4\u4efb\u7684\uff0c\u5979\u4e8e\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa<\/span>90\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u62c5\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u514b\u6797\u987f\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u610f\u5916<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5317\u4eac\u65f6\u95f4\u5468\u56db\u51cc\u6668<\/span>2:00\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e\u3002\u6839\u636e<\/span>CME\u7684<\/span>FedWatch\u5de5\u5177\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8<\/span>9\u6708\u52a0\u606f\u6982\u7387\u4e3a<\/span>15%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6ce8\uff1a\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6570\u636e\u4ecd\u5360\u591a\u6570\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u5927\u9009\u60c5\u52bf\uff0c\u6267\u653f\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u7684\u9886\u5148\u4f18\u52bf\u8fd1\u65e5\u660e\u663e\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u51fa\u4e8e\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u66f4\u4ee4\u52a0\u606f\u6982\u7387\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u4f55\u51b5\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4ecd\u9700\u907f\u514d\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u201d\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7ef4\u6301\u606f\u7387\u7a33\u5b9a\u6709\u5176\u5fc5\u8981\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u867d\u7136<\/span>9\u6708\u52a0\u606f\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u51fa\u73b0\u610f\u5916\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5c06\u5927\u5e45\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f15\u53d1\u5168\u7403\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4eca\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u81f4\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u62c5\u5fc3\u7f8e\u5143\u98d9\u5347\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\u4f1a\u4ee4\u539f\u6cb9\u7b49\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8ba1\u4ef7\u7684\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u627f\u538b\uff0c\u56e0\u8fd9\u6837\u4f1a\u4ee4\u975e\u7f8e\u8d27\u5e01\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u8fc7\u9ad8\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f3a\u4e5f\u4ee4\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u507f\u8fd8\u7f8e\u5143\u76f8\u5173\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u538b\u529b\u52a0\u5927\u3002\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u90fd\u5c06\u53d1\u5e03\u653f\u7b56\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c<\/span>13.6\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u672c\u6708\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8f93\u5bb6\u6b63\u5728\u53cd\u6251\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u52a0\u5165\u5168\u7403\u503a\u5e02\u4e0a\u6da8\u884c\u60c5\uff0c<\/span>30\u5e74\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u521b\u4e0b\u4e24\u5468\u6700\u5927\u964d\u5e45\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9053\u660e\u8bc1\u5238\u7b56\u7565\u5e08<\/span>David Tulk\u548c<\/span>Priya Misra\u7b49\u64b0\u5199\u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff1a\u57fa\u51c6\u60c5\u5f62\u5047\u5b9a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f9d\u7136\u201c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9<\/span>2016\u5e74\u8868\u660e\u6001\u5ea6\u201d\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u5f62\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a<\/span>50%\uff0c\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4<\/span>10\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5728\u8036\u4f26\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u524d\u7531<\/span>1.67%\u4e0b\u8dcc<\/span>5\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff1b\u9e3d\u6d3e\u503e\u659c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u503e\u5411\uff08<\/span>25%\u6982\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4ece<\/span>2016\u5e74\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u9884\u671f\u4e2d\u56de\u64a4\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4<\/span>10\u5e74\u671f\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8dcc<\/span>8\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff1b\u8036\u4f26\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u4e0a\u7684\u9e3d\u6d3e\u57fa\u8c03\uff08<\/span>70%\u6982\u7387\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u5f3a\u8c03\u201c\u6570\u636e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u8868\u73b0\u201d\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6536\u76d8\u65f6\u8dcc<\/span>8\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff1b\u9e70\u6d3e\u503e\u659c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\uff1a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5347<\/span>5\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u98ce\u9669\u201c\u63a5\u8fd1\u5e73\u8861\u201d\uff08<\/span>10%\u6982\u7387\uff09\uff1b\u6216\u8005\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5347<\/span>10\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e0a\u8c03\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5e76\u6697\u793a\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u201c\u9884\u671f\u6709\u9650\u201d\uff08<\/span>15%\u6982\u7387\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9ec4\u91d1\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

\u76ee\u524d\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u9677\u5165\u6253\u76f9\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u7684<\/span>60\u5929\u5386\u53f2\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u964d\u81f3<\/span>13\u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u7ebd\u7ea6\uff08\u4e13\u9898\uff09\u5546\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u603b\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u6bd4<\/span>100\u5929\u540c\u65f6\u6bb5\u5747\u503c\u4f4e<\/span>45%\uff0c\u672a\u5e73\u4ed3\u5408\u7ea6\u8f83<\/span>7\u6708\u7684\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u6c34\u5e73\u51cf\u5c11<\/span>14%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u745e\u58eb\u5b9d\u76db\u96c6\u56e2\u5206\u6790\u5e08<\/span>Carsten Menke\u79f0\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u53c8\u56de\u5230\u4e0b\u6b21\u5347\u606f\u9884\u671f\u51b3\u5b9a\u77ed\u671f\u8d70\u52bf\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5373\u5347\u606f\u9884\u671f\u88ab\u63a8\u540e\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\uff1b\u5f53\u5347\u606f\u9884\u671f\u63d0\u524d\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u4f1a\u7ed9\u5e02\u573a\u6ce8\u5c04\u5347\u606f\u9884\u9632\u9488\uff0c\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u660e\u5e74<\/span>3\u6708\u5347\u606f\u57cb\u4e0b\u4f0f\u7b14\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u671f\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\u5bf9\u91d1\u4ef7\u4e0d\u5229\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

Capital Economics\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u79f0\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ece\u6280\u672f\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u8d35\u91d1\u5c5e\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u524d\u666f\u6709\u6240\u6076\u5316\u3002\u7684\u786e\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8d35\u91d1\u5c5e\u4ef7\u683c\u73b0\u5728\u90fd\u8dcc\u7a7f\u4e86<\/span>50\u65e5\u79fb\u52a8\u5747\u7ebf\u5207\u5165\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u5728<\/span>200\u65e5\u79fb\u52a8\u5747\u7ebf\u5207\u5165\u4f4d\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u4e00\u65e6\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u518d\u5ea6\u6309\u4e0b\u52a0\u606f\u6309\u94ae\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u80a1\u5e02\u6050\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u632b\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u624d\u4ece\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u4e0a\u5347\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\u7684\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u66f4\u5c06\u7a81\u7136\u9762\u4e34\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

ACG Analytics\u5206\u6790\u5e08<\/span>Larry McDonald\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u5c06\u4f1a\u5927\u5e45\u52a0\u5927\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u663e\u7740\u52a0\u5267\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u80a1\u5e02\u81f3\u5c11\u66b4\u8dcc<\/span>10%\u81f3<\/span>15%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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