{"id":51302,"date":"2017-06-14T21:14:03","date_gmt":"2017-06-14T21:14:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/2017\/06\/14\/%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e6%8c%89%e5%85%b5%e4%b8%8d%e5%8a%a8%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e4%b8%8d%e5%86%8d%e5%bf%8c%e6%83%ae%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%ef%bc%9f\/"},"modified":"2017-06-14T21:14:03","modified_gmt":"2017-06-14T21:14:03","slug":"%e5%a4%ae%e8%a1%8c%e6%8c%89%e5%85%b5%e4%b8%8d%e5%8a%a8%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e4%b8%8d%e5%86%8d%e5%bf%8c%e6%83%ae%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=51302","title":{"rendered":"\u592e\u884c\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u518d\u5fcc\u60ee\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u3000\u3000<a href=&quot;data\/attachment\/portal\/201706\/14\/211340lkkjiku9o9f6w9bf.png&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot; style=&quot;line-height: 1.8em;&quot;><img src=&quot;data\/attachment\/portal\/201706\/14\/211340lkkjiku9o9f6w9bf.png&quot;><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;\u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u518d\u60e7\u6015\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8(Federal Reserve)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u30002016\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u548c\u6c47\u5e02\u52a8\u8361\uff0c\u4ee4\u5404\u65b9\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u4ee5\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u65b9\u9762\u62c5\u5fc3\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u52a0\u606f\u884c\u52a8\u90fd\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5267\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u9003\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4f46\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6309\u7167\u539f\u6765\u7684\u6307\u5f15\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u987e\u53ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u8fd9\u7ed9\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u94f6\u884c(PBoC)\u5e26\u6765\u5598\u606f\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u5b9e\u65bd\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u5236\uff0c\u51cf\u7f13\u4e86\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u9003\uff0c\u540c\u65f62016\u5e74\u521d\u7684\u4fe1\u8d37\u6fc0\u589e\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6807\u51c6\u94f6\u884c(Standard<br \/>\nBank)\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6770\u91cc\u7c73&#8226;\u65af\u8482\u82ac\u65af(Jeremy Stevens)\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\uff1a\u201c\u53bb\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u534f\u52a9\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4eca\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(FOMC)\u5c06\u5728\u5468\u4e09\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e0a\u8c03\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u81ea\u4eca\u5e743\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u3001\u81ea\u53bb\u5e7412\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u800c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6536\u7a84\u4e16\u754c\u4e24\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u548c\u503a\u5238\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e4b\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u591a\u6570\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d1f\u8d23\u5ba1\u6279\u4e2d\u56fd\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\uff0c\u5c06\u6309\u5175\u4e0d\u52a8\u3002\u201c\u773c\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u9700\u8981\u4fdd\u6301\u5229\u7387\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u201d\u4e2d\u56fd\u77e5\u540d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u524d\u987e\u95ee\u4f59\u6c38\u5b9a\u8868\u793a\u3002\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u8ddf\u968f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u94f6\u884c\u57282014\u5e74\u548c2015\u5e74\u516d\u6b21\u4e0b\u8c03\u4e00\u5e74\u671f\u5b58\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u4ece3%\u964d\u81f31.5%\uff0c\u4f46\u6b64\u540e\u672a\u518d\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u81ea2015\u5e7412\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387(Federal<br \/>\nFunds<br \/>\nRate)\u5df2\u4ece0.25%\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f31%\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u672c\u5468\u8fd8\u5c06\u4e0a\u8c0325\u57fa\u70b9\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a83\u6708\u52a0\u606f\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd10\u5e74\u671f\u4e3b\u6743\u503a\u5238\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd10\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e4b\u5dee\u4ece2014\u5e7412\u6708\u7684150\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u964d\u81f3\u4e0d\u523080\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u6b64\u540e\u53c8\u6709\u6240\u6269\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u9664\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u5236\u884c\u4e4b\u6709\u6548\u548c\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c(GDP)\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u5f3a\u52b2\u2014\u2014\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u8fbe\u52306.9%\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u94f6\u884c\u5df2\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u77ed\u671f\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u64cd\u4f5c\u6765\u6536\u7d27\u8d27\u5e01\u72b6\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u7f8e\u8054\u50a83\u6708\u52a0\u606f\u6b21\u65e5\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u94f6\u884c\u5c06\u77ed\u671f\u9006\u56de\u8d2d\u534f\u8bae(reverse repos)\u548c\u4e2d\u671f\u501f\u8d37\u4fbf\u5229(MLF)\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u63d0\u9ad810\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5f53\u65f6\u5728\u5ba3\u5e03\u8fd9\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u65f6\uff0c\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u6709\u6240\u6539\u5584\u548c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u591a\u5e74\u901a\u7f29\u540e\u5728\u53bb\u5e749\u6708\u521a\u8f6c\u4e3a\u6b63\u503c\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u8005\u51fa\u5382\u4ef7\u683c\u663e\u8457\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f7f\u4f01\u4e1a\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u507f\u8fd8\u503a\u52a1\u672c\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u201c\u8fd1\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u80fd\u591f\u4f7f\u7528\u5176\u4ed6\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u201d\u4f59\u6c38\u5b9a\u8868\u793a\u3002\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u79f0\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u52a0\u606f\u65e9\u5df2\u900f\u9732\u7ed9\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u201c\u6b64\u4e3e\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u592a\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5b98\u5458\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u9006\u56de\u8d2d\u534f\u8bae\u548c\u4e2d\u671f\u501f\u8d37\u4fbf\u5229\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u4e3a\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a5\u5e74\u671f\u548c10\u5e74\u671f\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u5238\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u57284\u6708\u9996\u6b21\u53cd\u8f6c\uff0c\u800c\u516c\u53f8\u503a\u5238\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u57285\u6708\u4efd\u8dcc\u81f3\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u4f4e\u4f4d\u3002\u4e0a\u6708\u516c\u53f8\u503a\u5238\u51c0\u878d\u8d44\u989d\u4e3a\u8d1f2170\u4ebf\u5143\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5230\u671f\u503a\u5238\u91cf\u8fdc\u8fdc\u591a\u4e8e\u65b0\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5b98\u5458\u975e\u5e38\u62c5\u5fe7\u503a\u5238\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u4e0b\u6ed1\u5c06\u5f71\u54cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u201d\u719f\u6089\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u94f6\u884c\u5185\u90e8\u8003\u91cf\u7684\u4e00\u540d\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u5229\u7387\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\uff0c\u800c(\u66f4\u4e25\u5389\u7684)\u91d1\u878d\u76d1\u7ba1\u610f\u5473\u7740\u91d1\u878d\u72b6\u51b5\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u5df2\u88ab\u6536\u7d27\uff0c\u201d\u9f99\u6d32\u7ecf\u8baf(Gavekal<br \/>\nDragonomics)\u4e2d\u56fd\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u7ba1\u767d\u5b89\u5112(Andrew Batson)\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u4efd\u7b80\u62a5\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\u3002\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u6e34\u671b\u770b\u5230\u5229\u7387\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u5236(\u6536\u7d27\u5bf9\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u8d2d\u6c47\u6216\u6d77\u5916\u6c47\u6b3e\u7684\u5ba1\u6838)\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u591a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u62c5\u5fc3\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u7387\u4fdd\u6301\u57281\u7f8e\u5143\u51516.9\u5143\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f46\u81ea\u4e0a\u6708\u672b\u4ee5\u6765\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u6c47\u7387\u8d70\u9ad81.4%\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u53d7\u5230\u7cbe\u5fc3\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u800c\u8a00\u662f\u4e0d\u5bfb\u5e38\u7684\u98d9\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u5317\u4eac\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8Trivium\u7684\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81\u00b7\u6ce2\u5c14\u514b(Andrew<br \/>\nPolk)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\uff0c\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u5f15\u5bfc\u5916\u754c\u5bf9\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u9884\u671f\u8d70\u9ad8\u201d\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u672b\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u9884\u8ba1\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5c06\u81f3\u5c11\u8dcc\u81f31\u7f8e\u5143\u51517.3\u5143\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5f3a\u52bf\u8fd8\u5e26\u6765\u964d\u4f4e\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6469\u64e6\u7684\u989d\u5916\u597d\u5904\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e(Donald<br 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