{"id":53929,"date":"2017-10-29T07:13:47","date_gmt":"2017-10-29T07:13:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/2017\/10\/29\/%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%ef%bc%9a%e5%91%a8%e5%b0%8f%e5%b7%9d%e7%9a%84%e8%a8%80%e8%be%9e%e4%b8%ba%e4%bd%95%e6%84%88%e5%8f%91%e7%9b%b4%e7%8e%87%ef%bc%9f\/"},"modified":"2017-10-29T07:13:47","modified_gmt":"2017-10-29T07:13:47","slug":"%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%ef%bc%9a%e5%91%a8%e5%b0%8f%e5%b7%9d%e7%9a%84%e8%a8%80%e8%be%9e%e4%b8%ba%e4%bd%95%e6%84%88%e5%8f%91%e7%9b%b4%e7%8e%87%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=53929","title":{"rendered":"\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u7684\u8a00\u8f9e\u4e3a\u4f55\u6108\u53d1\u76f4\u7387\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u3000\u3000<\/a><\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5373\u5c06\u9000\u4f11\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\uff08\u5de6\uff09\u8fd1\u6765\u5728\u8c08\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\u8a00\u8f9e\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u76f4\u7387\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u89c2\u5bdf\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u975e\u5076\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u4e0a\u5468\uff0c\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u4f7f\u7528\u201c\u660e\u65af\u57fa\u65f6\u523b\u201d(Minsky
\nmoment)\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u6765\u8b66\u544a\u4eba\u4eec\uff0c\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u4e2d\u56fd\u589e\u957f\u610f\u5916\u5f3a\u52b2\u65f6\u671f\u4e0d\u8981\u81ea\u6ee1\u3002\u8fd9\u5e76\u975e\u8fd9\u4f4d\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u9996\u6b21\u5f3a\u8c03\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8d1f\u503a\u548c\u6295\u673a\u6027\u6295\u8d44\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u80af\u5b9a\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6293\u4eba\u773c\u7403\u7684\u8bcd\u5c06\u5360\u636e\u65b0\u95fb\u5934\u6761\uff0c\u5b83\u8ba9\u4eba\u8054\u60f3\u8d772008\u5e74\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6d77\u66fc•\u660e\u65af\u57fa(Hyman
\nMinsky)\u7684\u540d\u58f0\u518d\u6b21\u4f20\u626c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u5468\uff0c\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u6709\u5173\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u76f4\u7387\u3002\u592e\u884c\u89c2\u5bdf\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u975e\u5076\u7136\u3002\u5728\u53d1\u51fa\u201c\u660e\u65af\u57fa\u65f6\u523b\u201d\u8b66\u544a\u7684\u90a3\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c69\u5c81\u7684\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u8bc1\u5b9e\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c06\u5f88\u5feb\u9000\u4f11\u3002\u4ed6\u4e8e2002\u5e74\u5c31\u4efb\uff0c\u662f\u4efb\u804c\u65f6\u95f4\u6700\u957f\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5728\u6709\u5173\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7ee7\u4efb\u8005\u7684\u4f20\u8a00\u56db\u8d77\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u89c2\u5bdf\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u76f4\u7387\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u4ed6\u6b63\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6b21\u547c\u5401\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u7cbe\u82f1\u7ee7\u7eed\u4ed6\u6240\u5021\u5bfc\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u6539\u9769\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6539\u9769\u906d\u53d7\u4e86\u632b\u6298\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u603b\u90e8\u8bbe\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u516c\u53f8Trivium China\u7684\u8054\u5408\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81•\u6ce2\u5c14\u514b(Andrew
\nPolk)\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u597d\u50cf\u5728\u505a\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u640f\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u4e3a\u4ed6\u957f\u671f\u575a\u5b88\u7684\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4f53\u7cfb\u63d0\u4f9b\u8bba\u636e\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u8bf4\uff0c\u2018\u6211\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u8fc8\u4e0a\u4e86\u8fd9\u6761\u8def\uff0c\u8bf7\u4e0d\u8981\u653e\u5f03\u2019\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5728\u53d1\u8868\u201c\u660e\u65af\u57fa\u65f6\u523b\u201d\u8a00\u8bba\u7684\u4e00\u5468\u524d\uff0c\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u5728\u63a5\u53d7\u4e2d\u56fd\u5a92\u4f53\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u66fe\u6566\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u5f00\u8d44\u672c\u7ba1\u5236\u3002\u57286\u6708\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bba\u575b\u4e0a\uff0c\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u672a\u80fd\u5141\u8bb8\u5916\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u66f4\u591a\u8fdb\u5165\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u56fd\u5185\u94f6\u884c\u201c\u61d2\u60f0\u201d\u548c\u201c\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u66f4\u5f31\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u8d62\u5f97\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7(IMF)\u6279\u51c6\u628a\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u4f5c\u4e3a\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u5c06\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u7eb3\u5165IMF\u7279\u522b\u63d0\u6b3e\u6743(SDR)\u8d27\u5e01\u7bee\u5b50\uff0c\u800c\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52aa\u529b\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u7b56\u5212\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u79f0\u8d5e\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5934\u8111\u2014\u2014\u5229\u7528SDR\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u58f0\u671b\uff0c\u8425\u5efa\u5bf9\u515a\u5185\u4fdd\u5b88\u5206\u5b50\u6240\u963b\u6320\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u6539\u9769\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e00\u52aa\u529b\u5df2\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u8f6c\u5411\u4e86\u904f\u5236\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41\u548c\u9632\u8303\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8d2c\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5eb7\u5948\u5c14\u5927\u5b66(Cornell University)\u6559\u6388\u3001\u524dIMF\u4e2d\u56fd\u90e8\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba\u57c3\u65af\u74e6\u5c14•\u666e\u62c9\u8428\u5fb7(Eswar
\nPrasad)\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u884c\u957f\u5728\u63a8\u52a8\u8d44\u672c\u8d26\u6237\u5f00\u653e\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u6539\u9769\u53ca\u6539\u5584\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u6c47\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u9762\u8d77\u7740\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002(\u4f46)\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\u6709\u9650\u800c\u4e14\u7f13\u6162\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u8fbe\u5230\u4ed6\u7ecf\u5e38\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5bf9\u4e8e\u76d1\u7ba1\u90e8\u95e8\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e24\u96be\u56f0\u5883\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41\u4f1a\u7ed9\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u65bd\u52a0\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8feb\u4f7f\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0e\u5916\u56fd\u540c\u884c\u4e89\u593a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u6566\u4fc3\u5b83\u4eec\u5904\u7406\u574f\u8d26\u5e76\u6539\u5584\u5176\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u5c1a\u672a\u89e3\u9664\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u653e\u5f00\u5bf9\u5916\u6295\u8d44\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u8d44\u672c\u5927\u91cf\u5916\u6d41\u4ece\u800c\u7834\u574f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u90bb\u56fd\u4eec\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\u6240\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u8bb2\u8bdd\u4e2d\uff0c\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u66fe\u4e3a\u6253\u51fb\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41\u8fa9\u62a4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u201c\u4ed6\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u56fd\u9645\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u8d44\u672c\u8d26\u6237\u5f00\u653e\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u4e0d\u80fd\u8bf4\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5168\u7403\u6027\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u201d\u66fe\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u4efb\u804c\u7684\u745e\u7a57\u8bc1\u5238\u4e9a\u6d32(Mizuho
\nSecurities Asia)\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6c88\u5efa\u5149\u8868\u793a\u3002\u201c\u5373\u4f7f\u5b58\u5728\u6682\u65f6\u7684\u632b\u6298\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u60f3\u8981\u786e\u4fdd\u603b\u4f53\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5f00\u653e\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u63a5\u66ff\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u7684\u4e24\u4f4d\u4e3b\u8981\u4eba\u9009\u5206\u522b\u662f\u848b\u8d85\u826f\u4e0e\u90ed\u6811\u6e05\uff0c\u524d\u8005\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u8d44\u6df1\u94f6\u884c\u5bb6\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u6e56\u5317\u7701\u59d4\u4e66\u8bb0\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u94f6\u76d1\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u201c\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e24\u4eba\u4e2d\u848b\u8d85\u826f\u63a5\u66ff\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8f83\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd8\u5f88\u96be\u9884\u6599\uff0c\u201d\u4e00\u4f4d\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u5c42\u91d1\u878d\u5b98\u5458\u5173\u7cfb\u5bc6\u5207\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u7701\u7684\u515a\u59d4\u4e66\u8bb0\uff0c\u4e25\u683c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u848b\u8d85\u826f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u754c\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u8981\u6bd4\u90ed\u6811\u6e05\u9ad8\u3002\u5728\u4eca\u5e742\u6708\u8c03\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u94f6\u76d1\u4f1a\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u90ed\u6811\u6e05\u662f\u5c71\u4e1c\u7701\u7684\u4e8c\u628a\u624b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4f46\u90ed\u6811\u6e05(\u4e0a\u56fe\u53f3)\u662f\u4e00\u540d\u9887\u6709\u5efa\u6811\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u578b\u5b98\u5458\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u524d\u603b\u7406\u6731\u9555\u57fa\u7684\u95e8\u5f92\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u9886\u5bfc\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u9632\u63a7\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u4ed6\u88ab\u4efb\u547d\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u884c\u957f\u5c06\u53d7\u5230\u5e0c\u671b\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u91cd\u632f\u91d1\u878d\u6539\u9769\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b98\u5458\u4e0e\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6b22\u8fce\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u9664\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u79f0\uff0c\u5468\u5c0f\u5ddd\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u76f4\u7387\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u63d0\u5347\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u9057\u4ea7\uff0c\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0b\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u82f1\u8bed\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u8bbd\u523a\u5e7d\u9ed8\u548c\u8f7b\u677e\u7684\u98ce\u5ea6\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5728\u5916\u56fd\u5b98\u5458\u4e2d\u5f88\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u201c\u4ed6\u8bd5\u56fe\u63d0\u9192\u5927\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u76ee\u524d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u91cd\u8981\u592e\u884c\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u7684\u638c\u8235\u4eba\uff0c15\u5e74\u6765\u4ed6\u4e00\u76f4\u8df5\u884c\u7740\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u201d\u6ce2\u5c14\u514b\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4ed6\u6709\u7740\u6539\u9769\u8005\u7684\u58f0\u8a89\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4ed6\u4e5f\u771f\u7684\u76f8\u4fe1\u6539\u9769\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

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