{"id":56647,"date":"2018-04-10T22:02:29","date_gmt":"2018-04-10T22:02:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/2018\/04\/10\/%e9%ab%98%e7%9b%9b%ef%bc%9a%e7%be%8e%e6%ac%b2%e5%a4%a7%e7%a0%8d%e8%b4%b8%e6%98%93%e9%80%86%e5%b7%ae%e5%94%af%e4%b8%80%e8%bf%85%e9%80%9f%e6%9c%89%e6%95%88%e6%96%b9%e5%bc%8f%e6%98%af%e8%bf%99%e4%b8%aa\/"},"modified":"2018-04-10T22:02:29","modified_gmt":"2018-04-10T22:02:29","slug":"%e9%ab%98%e7%9b%9b%ef%bc%9a%e7%be%8e%e6%ac%b2%e5%a4%a7%e7%a0%8d%e8%b4%b8%e6%98%93%e9%80%86%e5%b7%ae%e5%94%af%e4%b8%80%e8%bf%85%e9%80%9f%e6%9c%89%e6%95%88%e6%96%b9%e5%bc%8f%e6%98%af%e8%bf%99%e4%b8%aa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=56647","title":{"rendered":"\u9ad8\u76db\uff1a\u7f8e\u6b32\u5927\u780d\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u552f\u4e00\u8fc5\u901f\u6709\u6548\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u3000\u3000<\/a><\/p>\n

      \u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u9ad8\u76db\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u54c8\u6d4e\u65af\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u56e2\u961f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u82e5\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u6ce2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u56fd\u5185\u6210\u957f\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u8fc5\u901f\u7f29\u51cf\u3002\u6b27\u65b0\u793e\u8d22\u7ecf\u65b0\u95fb\u7f51\u7ad9MarketWatch\u62a5\u5bfc\uff0c\u9ad8\u76db\u516c\u53f8(Goldman
\nSachs)\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\u94c1\u5b9a\u80fd\u89e3\u51b3\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u5916\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u4e0e\u65e5\u4ff1\u589e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u968f\u7740\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6469\u64e6\u548c\u5f15\u7206\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u7684\u7591\u4e91\u4e5f\u5c31\u968f\u4e4b\u6d88\u6563\uff0c\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89e3\u51b3\u4e4b\u9053\u987b\u4ed8\u51fa\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7531\u9ad8\u76db\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u54c8\u6d4e\u65af(Jan
\nHatzius)\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u56e2\u961f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u82e5\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u6ce2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u56fd\u5185\u6210\u957f\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u8fc5\u901f\u7f29\u51cf\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u54c8\u6d4e\u65af\u56e2\u961f\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94(6\u65e5)\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u300c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u5165\u8d85\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u501f\u5145\u5206\u6269\u5927\u8d38\u6613\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u524a\u51cf\u9006\u5dee\u7684\u5b8f\u5927\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u6c89\u91cd\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6210\u957f\u51cf\u5f31\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u62a5\u590d\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u552f\u4e00\u80af\u5b9a\u80fd\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u4f4e\u9006\u5dee\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u8870\u9000\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u300c\u8870\u9000\u300d(recession)\u6cdb\u6307\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8fde\u7eed\u4e24\u5b63\u840e\u7f29\u3002\u8d1f\u8d23\u8ba4\u5b9a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u5c40(NBER)\u5bf9\u300c\u8870\u9000\u300d\u6240\u4e0b\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f\uff1a\u300c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u666f\u6c14\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u4e14\u904d\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5404\u5c42\u9762\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd9\u73b0\u8c61\u6301\u7eed\u8d85\u8fc7\u6570\u6708\u4e4b\u4e45\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u5305\u7f57\u4e07\u8c61\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u6bdb\u989d(GDP)\u4e0e\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u5728\u5185\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5ddd\u666e\u5df2\u626c\u8a00\u8981\u628a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u780d\u63891,000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u6700\u8fd1\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u8bfe\u91cd\u7a0e\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u534e\u5e9c\u4e0e\u5317\u4eac\u5f53\u5c40\u6700\u8fd1\u9891\u9891\u9694\u7a7a\u4e92\u545b\uff0c\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e92\u796d\u5173\u7a0e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u6839\u636e\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eca\u5e742\u6708\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u8fbe576\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5347\u62b5\u8fd1\u5341\u5e74\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u51c6\uff0c\u4e5f\u51f8\u663e\u5ddd\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u9762\u4e34\u524a\u51cf\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002\u8d44\u6599\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd2\u6708\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d27\u7269\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u8fbe347\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u54c8\u6d4e\u65af\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8d27\u7269\u5e74\u51fa\u53e3\u989d\u5927\u7ea61,500\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5374\u4ece\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u4ef7\u503c\u7ea65,000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d27\u7269\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6700\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u53ef\u7f29\u5c0f\u9006\u5dee\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u9ad8\u76db\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u300c\u4e3e\u4f8b\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6d77\u5916\u9700\u6c42\u82e5\u672a\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5360GDP
\n1%\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u7d27\u7f29\u5c06\u5728\u4e24\u5e74\u540e\u5927\u5e45\u6539\u5584\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u652f;\u82e5\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u4e5f\u5b9e\u65bd\u7d27\u7f29\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5219\u6b64\u6570\u7ea6\u4e00\u534a\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u6536\u652f\u6539\u5584\u5c06\u4ed8\u51fa\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\uff1a\u5b9e\u8d28GDP\u5c06\u56e0\u4e3a\u8d22\u653f\u7d27\u7f29\u800c\u7f29\u5c0f\u903e1%\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u62a5\u544a\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5c11\u6709\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u95ea\u73b0\u51fa\u8870\u9000\u7684\u8b66\u8baf\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ef\u671b\u5ef6\u7eed\u8fd1\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6210\u957f\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002BMO
\n\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8870\u9000\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u57282018\u5e74\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u82e5\u662f\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u901a\u81a8\u7387\u5347\u9ad8\u548c\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u9ad8\u89e6\u52a8\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u3000\u3000       \u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u9ad8\u76db\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u54c8\u6d4e\u65af\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u56e2\u961f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u82e5\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u6ce2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u56fd\u5185\u6210\u957f\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u8fc5\u901f\u7f29\u51cf\u3002\u6b27…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[10],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56647"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=56647"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56647\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=56647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=56647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=56647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}