{"id":56757,"date":"2018-04-15T06:48:10","date_gmt":"2018-04-15T06:48:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/2018\/04\/15\/%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e3%80%8c%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%ac%e3%80%8d%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83-%e7%8e%af%e7%90%83%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e7%ad%89%e5%8f%97%e9%9d%b6%ef%bc%9f\/"},"modified":"2018-04-15T06:48:10","modified_gmt":"2018-04-15T06:48:10","slug":"%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e3%80%8c%e5%8f%8d%e8%bd%ac%e3%80%8d%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83-%e7%8e%af%e7%90%83%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e7%ad%89%e5%8f%97%e9%9d%b6%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=56757","title":{"rendered":"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u300c\u53cd\u8f6c\u300d\u5168\u7403 \u73af\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7b49\u53d7\u9776\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u3000\u3000<\/a><\/p>\n

      \u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u641e\u98ce\u641e\u96e8\uff0c\u5927\u73a9\u300c\u4f30\u6211\u5514\u5230\u300d\u6e38\u620f\uff0c\u4ee4\u6e2f\u80a1\u6781\u5ea6\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u662f\u9ad8\u4f4d\u6574\u56fa\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6b63\u6240\u8c13\u300c\u6c5f\u5c71\u6613\u6539\uff0c\u672c\u6027\u96be\u79fb\u300d\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u6027\u683c\u6050\u300c\u73a9\u6b8b\u7f8e\u56fd\u300d\uff0c\u4ee4\u73af\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5f53\u707e\u3002\u70b9\u89e3?\u542c\u542c\u300c\u80a1\u795e\u300d\u53ca\u8036\u4f26\u600e\u8bb2\u5c31\u77e5!<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u3010\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u53d8\u718a?\u80a1\u795e\u9884\u8a00\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4f1a\u4ee4\u7f8e\u56fd\u300c\u7834\u4ea7\u300d?\u3011<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u8bf4\u5230\u80a1\u5e02\u53ca\u697c\u5e02\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u63d0\u7279\u6717\u666e\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u4e00\u4e3e\u4e00\u52a8\u300c\u53cd\u8f6c\u300d\u5168\u7403!\u539f\u676520\u591a\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u300c\u80a1\u795e\u300d\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u5df2\u9884\u8a00\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4f1a\u4ee4\u7f8e\u56fd\u300c\u7834\u4ea7\u300d?<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u8bdd\u8bf41991\u5e74\u67d0\u5929\uff0c\u4ed6\u5411\u5b66\u751f\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e3e\u503a\u548c\u5229\u7528\u6760\u6746\u7684\u5371\u5bb3\u65f6\uff0c\u66fe\u4ee5\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4f5c\u300c\u53cd\u9762\u6559\u6750\u300d\uff0c\u5f53\u5e74\u7279\u6717\u666e\u65d7\u4e0b\u6709\u4e1a\u52a1\u7533\u8bf7\u7834\u4ea7\u3002\u524d\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406Whitney
\nTilson\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u5f53\u65f6\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u8bf4\uff1a\u300c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9519\u5728\u54ea\u91cc?\u4ed6\u6700\u5927\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u4ece\u672a\u8bd5\u8fc7\u6b63\u786e\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u5730\u4ea7\u65b9\u9762\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u90fd\u51fa\u4e86\u9ad8\u4ef7\uff0c\u4f46\u80fd\u627e\u5230\u4eba\u501f\u94b1\uff0c\u662f\u4ed6\u672c\u4e8b\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u501f\u94b1\u65b9\u9762\u771f\u662f\u6709\u4e00\u624b\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7eed\u8bf4\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u770b\u5230\u8fc7\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u56e0\u4e3a\u9157\u9152\u548c\u7528\u6760\u6746\u800c\u7834\u4ea7\u3002\u6240\u8c13\u6760\u6746\u5c31\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u501f\u6765\u7684\u94b1\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7834\u4ea7\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6760\u6746\u3002\u4ed6\u501f\u5230\u5f97\u610f\u5fd8\u5f62\uff0c\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u4ed4\u7ec6\u60f3\u8fc7\u80fd\u8fd8\u591a\u5c11…\u5e94\u8be5\u591a\u5b66\u4e60\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e0d\u4f7f\u7528\u8fc7\u591a\u503a\u52a1\u6760\u6746\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u3002\u6211\u8fd9\u8f88\u5b50\u4ece\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u501f\u8fc7\u5f88\u591a\u7684\u94b1\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8d5e\u6210\u5927\u91cf\u501f\u8d37\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u4f60\u591f\u806a\u660e\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u5728\u4e0d\u501f\u94b1\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4e5f\u80fd\u8d5a\u5230\u5f88\u591a\u94b1\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u8bda\u7136\uff0c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u81f3\u4eca\u4ecd\u6ca1\u6709\u6539\u53d8!\u4ed6\u57282017\u5e74\u7ed9\u80a1\u4e1c\u7684\u4fe1\u4e2d\u4ecd\u547c\u5401\uff0c\u300c\u4e0d\u8981\u501f\u94b1\u4e70\u80a1!\u300d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u3010\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u53d8\u718a?\u8036\u4f26\u90fd\u8bdd\u7279\u6717\u666e\u641e\u4e71\u6863\u3011<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u82e5\u5982\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6240\u8a00\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4f1a\u5426\u4ee4\u7f8e\u56fd\u7834\u4ea7?\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u672c\u5468\u5305\u62ec\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u524d\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8036\u4f26\u53ca\u4e00\u4f17\u524d\u9ad8\u5b98\u4e5f\u64b0\u6587\u6279\u8bc4\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u53bb\u5e7412\u6708\u843d\u5b9e\u7684\u8fdb\u53d6\u7a0e\u6539\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u662f\u4ee4\u5230\u8d22\u8d64\u6076\u5316\u7684\u6700\u6838\u5fc3\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5018\u6709\u4e0d\u614e\uff0c\u5c31\u5bfc\u81f4\u7f8e\u56fd\u5815\u5165\u503a\u52a1\u6df1\u6e0a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4ed6\u4eec\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u843d\u5b9e\u7a0e\u6539\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u662f\u300c\u9519\u8bef\u300d!\u6587\u7ae0\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u957f\u8fdc\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u76ee\u6807\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4ee4\u5230\u503a\u52a1\u5904\u4e8e\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8f68\u9053\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u8981\u5b9e\u73b0\u503a\u52a1\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u900f\u8fc7\u51cf\u5c11\u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u73b0\u65f6\u5c31\u662f\u65f6\u5019!\u51cf\u5c11\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8d22\u8d64\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8981\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5904\u4e8e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u900f\u8fc7\u523a\u6fc0\u653f\u7b56\u53bb\u91cd\u62fe\u9700\u6c42\u53ca\u907f\u514d\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5371\u673a\u3002\u6545\u6b64\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u7a0e\u6539\u53ca\u523a\u6fc0\u5c31\u4e1a\u884c\u52a8\u662f\u9006\u7ecf\u6d4e\u601d\u7ef4\u800c\u884c\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u62a5\u544a\u53c8\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u300c\u5230\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u503a\u52a1\u53ca\u8d64\u5b57\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u626c\uff0c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u7a0e\u6536\u5c06\u9700\u8981\u7528\u6765\u62b5\u9500\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u516c\u6c11\u63d0\u4f9b\u670d\u52a1\u548c\u5e94\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u548c\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u8d39\u7528\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u9664\u4e86\u8036\u4f26\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u5305\u62ec\u591a\u4f4d\u767d\u5bab\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u987e\u95ee(\u5373\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e13\u5bb6)\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Martin Neil Baily\u3001Jason Furman\u3001Alan
\nB. Krueger\uff0c\u4ee5\u53caLaura D’Andrea Tyson \u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u3010\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u53d8\u718a?\u7f8e\u7a7a\u88ad\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u80a1\u5e02\u4f1a\u70b9?\u3011<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ec8\u51fa\u624b\u7a7a\u88ad\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5c06\u6781\u5927\u673a\u4f1a\u77ed\u671f\u53d7\u538b\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5187\u5f97\u9884\u5148\u300c\u907f\u96be\u300d!\u4e00\u6765\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e0b\u4ee4\u540e\u80a1\u5e02\u5df2\u8d70\u907f\u4e0d\u53ca;\u4e8c\u6765\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u5df2\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u7a0b\u5f0f\u9884\u8bbe\uff0c\u4e0b\u4ee4\u7a7a\u88ad\u540e\u7acb\u5373\u6cbd\u8d27\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u666e\u901a\u6563\u6237\uff0c\u66f4\u6ca1\u6709\u65b9\u6cd5\u300c\u907f\u96be\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u6839\u636e\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784Ned Davis
\nResearch\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ba3\u5e03\u7a7a\u88ad\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\uff0c\u5c06\u662f\u635e\u5e95\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u56e0\u5f80\u7ee9\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u80a1\u5e026\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\u4f1a\u5f55\u5f97\u300c\u6b63\u56de\u62a5\u300d\u3002(\u672c\u6587\u9644\u56fe)<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u6570\u636e\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u8fc7\u5f8051\u6b21\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5371\u673a\u540e\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u9053\u6307\u5e73\u5747\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u4e89\u7aef\u540e1\u4e2a\u6708\u4f1a\u8dcc3.2%\uff0c\u4f466\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\u5c31\u6536\u590d\u5931\u5730\uff0c12\u4e2a\u6708\u4ea6\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u626c\u3002\u4f8b\u59822001\u5e749\u670811\u65e5\u53d1\u751f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u300c\u4e5d\u4e00\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u300d\uff0c\u9053\u6307\u5728\u4e4b\u540e\u76845\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u7d2f\u632b17.5%\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u8db32\u4e2a\u6708\u5c31\u6536\u590d\u5931\u5730\uff0c\u5e76\u9ad8\u4e8e9\u670810\u65e5\u7684\u6536\u5e02\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u3010\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u53d8\u718a?\u91d1\u4ef7\u6709\u5f02\u8c61!\u3011<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u6b63\u5f53\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u62c5\u5fc3\u80a1\u5e02\u4f1a\u5426\u5df2\u8f6c\u718a\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u518d\u6709\u5f02\u8c61\uff0c\u6216\u9884\u793a\u300c\u80a1\u697c\u7686\u766b\u300d\u6050\u5728\u4eca\u5b63\u8d77\u968f\u65f6\u5b8c\u7ed3!\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u73b0\u8d27\u91d1\u4ef7\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd10\u5e74\u671f\u503a\u606f\u8fde\u7eed3\u5b63\u300c\u4e00\u540c\u5411\u4e0a\u300d\u3002\u7f8e\u94f6\u7f8e\u6797\u66fe\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u8fd9\u6050\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5927\u8dcc\u8b66\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7a76\u7adf\u4e3a\u4f55\u91d1\u4ef7\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e0e\u7f8e\u503a\u606f\u4e00\u540c\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u626c?\u7b80\u5355\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u4e0e\u503a\u606f\u5e94\u662f\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u8d70\u52bf\u300c\u76f8\u53cd\u300d\uff0c\u56e0\u503a\u606f\u6574\u4f53\u53cd\u6620\u592e\u884c\u52a0\u606f\u53bb\u5411\uff0c\u800c\u91d1\u4ef7\u5219\u53cd\u6620\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u3002\u518d\u7b80\u5355\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5229\u7387\u6108\u9ad8\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c31\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u4ea7\u54c1\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u53ef\u5c06\u8d44\u91d1\u653e\u5728\u94f6\u884c\u6536\u606f\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e70\u91d1\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u4ef7\u504f\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u5229\u7387\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u626c\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u5c31\u8d8b\u5411\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4e0e\u5229\u7387\u53bb\u5411\u5448\u73b0\u6b63\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u503a\u606f\u5219\u4f1a\u4e0a\u626c\u3002\u6362\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u4e0e\u5229\u7387\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u662f\u300c\u8d1f\u5173\u7cfb\u300d\u3002\u56de\u987e\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u57281980\u5e74\u4ee3\u548c1990\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca2011\u5e74\u81f32015\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387(\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u5373\u8ba1\u53ca\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u5229\u7387)\u89c1\u5e95\u540e\u90fd\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0a\u5347\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u5c31\u957f\u671f\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u73b0\u65f6\u7684\u5f02\u8c61\u662f\uff1a\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb1\u5e74\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u91d1\u4ef7\u7adf\u7136\u4f01\u7a33\u751a\u81f3\u5fae\u5347\uff0c\u300c\u4e00\u540c\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\u662f\u4e0d\u5bfb\u5e38\u3002\u4e0a\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0\u91d1\u4ef7\u4e0e\u503a\u606f\u300c\u4e00\u540c\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\u662f2005\u81f32006\u5e74\uff0c\u4e8b\u540e\u8bc1\u660e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u89c1\u9876\u3002(\u672c\u6587\u9644\u56fe)<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679c\u5f02\u8c61\u7ee7\u7eed\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u5373\u8868\u793a\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u8ba4\u5b9a\u7f8e\u56fd\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\u8fd1\u89c1\u9876\uff0c2020\u5e74\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u66f4\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u80a1\u3001\u697c\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u626c\uff0c\u8fd9\u53cd\u800c\u9884\u793a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u4ee4\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u653e\u5f03\u52a0\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u3010\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u53d8\u718a?\u7747\u5b9e\u91d1\u4ef7\u80fd\u5426\u4f01\u7a33\u300c1365\u300d\u3011<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u91d1\u4ef7\u8981\u5230\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u6c34\u5e73\u624d\u503c\u5f97\u62c5\u5fe7?\u4e8e2017\u5e7410\u6708\u516c\u5f00\u5531\u6de1\u7535\u52a8\u8f66\u9f99\u5934\u7279\u65af\u62c9(Tesla)\u7684Piper Jaffray\u9996\u5e2d\u6280\u672f\u5206\u6790\u5458Craig
\nJohnson\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u91d1\u4ef7\u5347\u7a7f\u6bcf\u5b89\u58eb1,365\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5c06\u662f\u65b0\u5347\u6d6a\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u5bf9\u80a1\u5e02\u5341\u5206\u4e0d\u5229\u3002\u91d1\u4ef7\u672c\u5468\u4e09(4\u670811\u65e5)\u66fe\u9ad8\u89c11,365\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u672a\u4f01\u7a33\uff0c\u73b0\u5f98\u5f8a\u6bcf\u5b89\u58eb1,335\u7f8e\u5143\u5de6\u53f3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u9ec4\u91d1\u5177\u6709\u907f\u9669\u529f\u7528\uff0c\u6bcf\u5f53\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u9677\u5165\u6050\u614c\u65f6\u90fd\u4f1a\u4e0a\u626c\uff0c\u6545\u8d70\u52bf\u901a\u5e38\u4e0e\u80a1\u5e02\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u66f4\u751a\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u91d1\u4ef7\u786e\u8ba4\u5347\u52bf\uff0c\u6050\u9884\u793a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ca\u80a1\u5e02\u524d\u666f\u8f6c\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000Johnson\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u770b\u7d27\u300c\u91d1\u4ef71,365\u7f8e\u5143\u300d\uff0c\u5728\u6280\u672f\u4e0a\u662f\u91cd\u5927\u7a81\u7834\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u6536\u5e02\u4ef7\u4f01\u7a33\u8be5\u6c34\u5e73(4\u670811\u65e5\u4e0d\u7b97)\uff0c\u5c31\u662f2016\u5e748\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u9996\u6b21\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u91d1\u4ef7\u5c55\u5f00\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u5347\u6d6a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u3010\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u53d8\u718a?\u903e\u767e\u5e74\u5386\u53f2\u300c\u9053\u6c0f\u7406\u8bba\u300d\u53d1\u8b66\u53f7\u3011<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u9664\u4e86\u91d1\u4ef7\uff0c\u300c\u9053\u6c0f\u7406\u8bba\u300d\u672c\u5468\u4ea6\u53d1\u51fa\u4e86\u300c\u718a\u5e02\u6cbd\u8d27\u300d\u8b66\u53f7\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u9053\u743c\u65af\u8fd0\u8f93\u6307\u65702\u67089\u65e5\u7684\u9632\u7ebf\u300c10,136\u70b9\u300d\u5df2\u4e8e\u5468\u4e00(4\u67089\u65e5)\u5931\u9677\uff0c\u5f53\u65e5\u6536\u62a510,119\u70b9!<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u300c\u9053\u6c0f\u7406\u8bba\u300d\u6709\u903e\u767e\u5e74\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u662f\u6839\u636e\u9053\u743c\u65af\u8fd0\u8f93\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u9053\u743c\u65af\u5de5\u4e1a\u6307\u6570(\u9053\u6307)\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u6240\u5f97\u51fa\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u8fd0\u8f93\u6307\u6570\u4f1a\u8f83\u5de5\u4e1a\u6307\u6570\u5177\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u9053\u6307\u9632\u7ebf\u662f\u300c23,860\u70b9\u300d\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f2\u67088\u65e5\u7684\u6536\u5e02\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f46\u65e9\u4e8e3\u670823\u65e5\u5931\u5b88\uff0c\u5f53\u65e5\u9053\u6307\u6536\u62a523,533\u70b9\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u9053\u6307\u53ca\u8fd0\u8f93\u6307\u6570\u53cc\u53cc\u786e\u8ba4\u6536\u5e02\u5931\u5b882\u6708\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u6d6a\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4e00\u6d6a\u7684\u5f62\u6001\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e0d\u5229\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u56de\u987e\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u300c\u9053\u6c0f\u7406\u8bba\u300d\u4e0d\u662f100%\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u5e02\u573a\u4eba\u58eb\u8d28\u7591\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u4ecd\u5408\u65f6\u5b9c\uff0c\u4f46\u57282007\u5e7411\u670821\u65e5\u53ca1999\u5e749\u6708\u65f6\uff0c\u9053\u743c\u65af\u8fd0\u8f93\u6307\u6570\u4ea6\u662f\u7387\u5148\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u9053\u6307\u9677\u5165\u5927\u718a\u5e02\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ef\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53c2\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u3010\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u53d8\u718a?\u300c50\u7f8e\u4ed9\u300d\u8bdd\u6570\u6708\u5185\u6709\u620f\u7747\u3011<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u8bb2\u8d772\u6708\u51a7\u5e02\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u4e8e2\u6708\u521d\u7a81\u7136\u5927\u51a7\uff0c\u5e76\u521b\u4e0b6\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5927\u5355\u65e5\u8dcc\u5e02\uff0c\u4ee4\u4e13\u95e8\u8d4c\u51a7\u5e02\u7684\u300c50\u7f8e\u4ed9\u300d\u4e00\u4e0b\u5b50\u7ffb\u8eab\uff0c\u7531\u7d2f\u8f932\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u53d8\u5012\u8d5a\u8fd12\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143!\u73b0\u65f6\u4ed6\u8b66\u544a\u300c\u91d1\u878d\u5730\u9707\u300d\u6050\u6570\u6708\u5185\u53d1\u751f!<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u300a\u4e1c\u7f51\u300b\u65e9\u4e8e2017\u5e745\u6708\u65f6\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u51fa\u73b0\u6781\u602a\u5f02\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6709\u4eba\u72c2\u8d4c\u4fd7\u79f0\u300c\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6570\u300d\u7684VIX\u6307\u6570\u8ba4\u8d2d\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6108\u8f93\u6108\u4e70\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u6b64\u4eba\u6bcf\u5929\u56fa\u5b9a\u4ee550\u7f8e\u4ed9\u7684\u4ef7\u7801\uff0c\u8d2d\u51655\u4e07\u624bVIX\u8ba4\u8d2d\u671f\u6743(call
\noptions)\uff0c\u6545\u88ab\u5e02\u573a\u4eba\u58eb\u620f\u79f0\u4e3a\u300c50\u7f8e\u4ed9\u300d\u3002(\u6ce8\uff1a\u7531\u4e8eVIX\u6307\u657080%\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u6807\u6307\u8d70\u52bf\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u53ef\u7b80\u5355\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u8d4c\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u8dcc\u3002)<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u80a1\u57282017\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u5e741\u6708\u4e00\u76f4\u53cd\u8986\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4ee4\u300c50\u7f8e\u4ed9\u300d\u8d4c\u51a7\u5e02\u7684\u7f8e\u68a6\u4e0d\u65ad\u843d\u7a7a\uff0c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u4e8f\u635f\u8d85\u8fc72\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u76f4\u81f32\u6708\u521d\u7f8e\u80a1\u7206\u80a1\u707e\uff0c\u300c50\u7f8e\u4ed9\u300d\u4e00\u94fa\u7ffb\u751f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5012\u8d5a\u63a5\u8fd12\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143!<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u81f3\u4e8e\u300c50\u7f8e\u4ed9\u300d\u662f\u8c01?\u53bb\u5e748\u6708\u6709\u5a92\u4f53\u9996\u6b21\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5230\u771f\u6b63\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u603b\u90e8\u4f4d\u4e8e\u4f26\u6566\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u89c4\u6a21200\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u57fa\u91d1Ruffer
\nLLP\uff0c\u5176\u521b\u529e\u4eba\u662fJonathan Ruffer\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000Ruffer\u73b0\u65f6\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u300c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u300e\u5730\u9707\u300f\u5c06\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u66f4\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6570\u6708\u5185\u4e0a\u6f14\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6570\u5e74\u5185!\u4e00\u65e6\u300e\u5730\u9707\u300f\u6765\u4e34\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000Ruffer\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u662f\u6839\u636e\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7a0b\u5ea6\u800c\u4f5c\u51fa\u589e\u6301\u6216\u51cf\u6301\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u4e70\u8d27\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u4eca\u5e742\u6708\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u6781\u5ea6\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4ee4\u5927\u6237\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5c06\u90e8\u5206\u8d44\u91d1\u8f6c\u81f3\u503a\u5e02\uff0c\u662f\u5178\u578b\u7684\u907f\u9669\u624b\u6cd5\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0cRuffer\u63d0\u9192\uff0c2\u67086\u65e5\u7684\u5927\u51a7\u5e02\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u662f\u300c\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u626c\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u300c\u5371\u9669\u6b63\u5728\u6765\u4e34\u300d!<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u3010\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u53d8\u718a?\u5927\u884c\u5fc3\u7070\u5187\u8d38\u6218\u90fd\u96be\u7206\u5347\u3011<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u5426\u4e8e\u6570\u6708\u5185\u300c\u51fa\u4e8b\u300d\u8981\u62ed\u76ee\u4ee5\u5f85\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u672c\u5468\u5219\u4f01\u7a33\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5fe7\u8651\u83b7\u5f97\u7ebe\u7f13\uff0c\u4f46\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u7687\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c(RBC)\u7f8e\u80a1\u7b56\u7565\u4e3b\u7ba1Lori
\nCalvasina\u900f\u9732\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u6ca1\u6709\u8d38\u6218\uff0c\u5979\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u5bf9\u7f8e\u80a1\u70ed\u60c5\u4e5f\u6b63\u5728\u6d88\u9000\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u6807\u6307\u4eca\u5e74\u5e95\u76ee\u6807\u4ece3,000\u70b9\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f32,890\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5979\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u67093\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u5fc3\u7070\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u523a\u6fc0\u80a1\u5e02\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u6108\u6765\u6108\u5c11;\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u6536\u7f29(Multiple
\nContraction)\u4f1a\u4e8e\u4eca\u5e74\u5185\u5f00\u59cb;\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u8be5\u884c\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u672a\u676512\u4e2a\u6708\u80a1\u5e02\u4ec5\u4f1a\u5f55\u5f97\u8f7b\u5fae\u5347\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u6709\u5173\u7b2c\u4e00\u70b9\uff1a\u8be5\u884c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u76846\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u73b0\u65f6\u4ec5\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u5904\u4e8e\u6b63\u9762\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u5229\u8d8b\u52bf;\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e76\u8d2d\u53ca\u80a1\u4efd\u56de\u8d2d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u518d\u7206\u5347\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u5b9e\u5728\u6709\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7b2c\u4e8c\u70b9\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u6536\u7f29\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u626c\uff0c\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u80a1\u5e02\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\uff0cCalvasina\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb3\u6b21\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7d27\u7f29\u5468\u671f\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u6536\u7f29\u53ef\u8fbe1\/3\uff0c\u8fd9\u6216\u8bb8\u57282018\u5e74\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8be5\u884c\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u6807\u6307\u5728\u672a\u676512\u4e2a\u6708\u4ec5\u4f1a\u5f55\u5f97\u4f4e\u6216\u4e2d\u5355\u4f4d\u6570\u56de\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u3010\u80a1\u5e02\u771f\u53d8\u718a?\u4f62\u8bdd\u4ecd\u6709\u300c\u7ec8\u6781\u4e00\u5347\u300d\u3011<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u9762\u5012\u7747\u6de1!\u64c5\u957f\u4ee5\u53f2\u4e3a\u9274\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u8457\u540d\u6295\u8d44\u901a\u8baf\u53ca\u4e13\u680f\u4f5c\u5bb6Mark Hulbert\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u4e0e\u4e13\u95e8\u53d1\u6398\u300c\u5e02\u573a\u8f6c\u6369\u70b9\u300d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8Market
\nExtremes\u4e3b\u5e2dHayes Martin\u4ea4\u8c08\uff0c\u9884\u8a00\u300c\u80a1\u5e02\u7ec8\u6781\u7206\u5347\u968f\u65f6\u6765\u4e34!\u300d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000Hulbert\u8868\u793a\uff0cHayes
\nMartin\u8fd1\u5e74\u5bf9\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4e\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u751a\u51c6\u3002\u636e\u4e86\u89e3\uff0cMartin\u8058\u8bf7\u4e86\u51e0\u4f4d\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u5458\uff0c\u4e13\u95e8\u7814\u7a76\u600e\u6837\u7a81\u7834\u5728\u8f83\u5c11\u6837\u672c\u4e0b\u4f5c\u51fa\u8f83\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u76ee\u524dMartin\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5df2\u89c1\u5e95\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u4eba\u58eb\u5206\u6b67\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6781\u7aef\u60b2\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u7f55\u89c1\u5730\u4e00\u540c\u51fa\u73b0!\u6839\u636e\u5f80\u7ee9\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u300c\u5e02\u573a\u4eba\u58eb\u5206\u6b67\u300d\u548c\u300c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6781\u7aef\u60b2\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u300d\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u65b9\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u786e\u8ba4\u80a1\u5e02\u4f1a\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u73b0\u65f6\u300c\u4e00\u540c\u51fa\u73b0\u300d(\u4ed6\u79f0\u4e3a\u300c\u53cc\u91cd\u5dee\u8ddd\u300d)\u53cd\u6620\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u80a1\u5e02\u5c06\u300c\u5347\u5230\u4f60\u5514\u4fe1\u300d!<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4ed6\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4eba\u58eb\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u5927\u5229\u597d\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u91cf\u5ea6\u7ebd\u4ea4\u6240\u4e0a\u5347\u4e0e\u4e0b\u8dcc\u80a1\u4efd\u6570\u76ee\u5dee\u8ddd\u7684\u7d2f\u79ef\u5347\u8dcc\u7ebf(cumulative advance-decline
\nline)\u6ca1\u6709\u518d\u521b\u65b0\u4f4e\uff0c\u5373\u4ee3\u8868\u5728\u8dcc\u5e02\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0a\u5347\u80a1\u4efd\u591a\u4e8e\u4e0b\u8dcc\u80a1\u4efd\uff0c\u6216\u80a1\u4efd\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u672a\u5982\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u5927\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e3\u6708\u5e95\u81f34\u6708\u521d\u7684\u6240\u8c13\u300c\u8dcc\u5e02\u300d\uff0c\u5411\u4e0b\u52a8\u529b\u5e76\u4e0d\u5f3a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u82e5\u4ee5\u53f2\u4e3a\u9274\uff0cMartin\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ba1\u4eca\u6b21\uff0c\u81ea1920\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u51fa\u73b0\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u300c\u53cc\u91cd\u5dee\u8ddd\u300d\u603b\u5171\u67099\u6b21\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5168\u90e8\u5747\u57283\u81f36\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u597d!(\u672c\u6587\u9644\u56fe)<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000Martin\u53c8\u900f\u9732\uff0c\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u300c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6781\u7aef\u60b2\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\u300d\u4e0d\u662f\u9760\u611f\u89c9\u3002\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u53cd\u5411ETF(\u5373\u8d4c\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u4e70\u5356\u57fa\u91d1)\u7684\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u3002\u6839\u636e\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c2\u6708\u53ca3\u6708\u5927\u51a7\u5e02\u662f\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u60b2\u89c2\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u6709\u7406\u7531\u76f8\u4fe1\u80a1\u5e02\u77ed\u671f\u5df2\u89c1\u5e95\uff0c\u52302018\u5e74\u8f83\u540e\u671f\u624d\u771f\u6b63\u89c1\u9876\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u3000\u3000       \u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u641e\u98ce\u641e\u96e8\uff0c\u5927\u73a9\u300c\u4f30\u6211\u5514\u5230\u300d\u6e38\u620f\uff0c\u4ee4\u6e2f\u80a1\u6781\u5ea6\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u662f\u9ad8\u4f4d\u6574\u56fa\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6b63\u6240\u8c13\u300c\u6c5f\u5c71\u6613\u6539\uff0c\u672c\u6027\u96be\u79fb\u300d\uff0c…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[10],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56757"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=56757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56757\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=56757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=56757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=56757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}