{"id":60026,"date":"2018-09-24T07:02:44","date_gmt":"2018-09-24T07:02:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/2018\/09\/24\/%e4%bd%a0%e4%b8%8d%e7%9f%a5%e9%81%93%e7%9a%84%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e5%86%9b%e5%b8%882001%e5%b9%b4%e5%b0%b1%e9%a2%84%e8%a7%81%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e5%a8%81%e8%83%81%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd\/"},"modified":"2018-09-24T07:02:44","modified_gmt":"2018-09-24T07:02:44","slug":"%e4%bd%a0%e4%b8%8d%e7%9f%a5%e9%81%93%e7%9a%84%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e5%86%9b%e5%b8%882001%e5%b9%b4%e5%b0%b1%e9%a2%84%e8%a7%81%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e5%a8%81%e8%83%81%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=60026","title":{"rendered":"\u4f60\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u5e082001\u5e74\u5c31\u9884\u89c1\u4e2d\u56fd\u201c\u5a01\u80c1\u201d\u7f8e\u56fd"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u3000\u3000<\/a><\/p>\n

      \u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u7b56\u7565\u5bb6\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14(Andrew
\nMarshall)\u6216\u8bb8\u5bf9\u4e00\u822c\u6c11\u4f17\u800c\u8a00\u6ca1\u6ca1\u65e0\u95fb\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u3001\u519b\u4e8b\u5708\u5374\u662f\u5927\u5e08\u7ea7\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u4ed6\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u82cf\u8054\u89e3\u4f53\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u5d1b\u8d77\u6210\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u5f3a\u6743\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u79d1\u6280\u5927\u5e45\u6539\u53d8\u73b0\u4ee3\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u591a\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u4f26\u65af\u6590\u3001\u76d6\u5179\u548c\u94b1\u5c3c\u90fd\u5b9a\u671f\u5411\u4ed6\u8bf7\u76ca\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u9ad8\u77bb\u8fdc\u77a9\u548c\u7280\u5229\u6d1e\u89c1\u4e3a\u4ed6\u8d62\u5f97\u5145\u6ee1\u656c\u610f\u7684\u7ef0\u53f7\u2014\u2014\u661f\u9645\u5927\u6218\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u5fb7\u9ad8\u671b\u91cd\u7684\u300c\u5c24\u8fbe\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u5f53\u4e3b\u4efb\u4e00\u505a42\u5e74<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c141973\u5e74\u83b7\u65f6\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u5c3c\u514b\u68ee\u63d0\u62d4\u4e3a\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u65b0\u8bbe\u5355\u4f4d\u300c\u51c0\u8bc4\u4f30\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u300d(Office of Net
\nAssessment)\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4e00\u505a\u5c31\u505a\u4e8642\u5e74\uff0c\u7ecf\u5386\u516b\u4f4d\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u800c\u5c79\u7acb\u4e0d\u6447\uff0c\u76f4\u52302015\u5e74\u9000\u4f11\u3002\u300c\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u300d\u671f\u520a\u62a5\u5bfc\uff0c\u4eca\u5e7497\u5c81\u7684\u4ed6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e2d\u98ce\u52a8\u624b\u672f\u521a\u521a\u590d\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u601d\u7eea\u8a00\u8c08\u4f9d\u7136\u7280\u5229\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6b63\u5728\u7b79\u753b\u590d\u51fa\uff0c\u51c6\u5907\u8bbe\u7acb\u300c\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u300d\uff0c\u53f7\u53ec\u5b66\u754c\u540c\u597d\u7814\u7a76\u4fc4\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u519b\u4e8b\u7406\u5ff5\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u5584\u4e8e\u6fc0\u53d1\u90e8\u5c5e\u7684\u624d\u534e\uff0c\u5728\u4e3b\u4efb\u4efb\u5185\u57f9\u517b\u4e86\u5927\u6279\u300c\u95e8\u751f\u300d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u540e\u6765\u5728\u5b66\u672f\u3001\u4ea7\u4e1a\u754c\u548c\u667a\u5e93\u90fd\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u53f7\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u53ef\u8c13\u300c\u6843\u674e\u6ee1\u5929\u4e0b\u300d\u30021997\u5e74\uff0c\u65f6\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u67ef\u6797\u987f\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f4d\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u67ef\u6069\u6253\u7b97\u4fee\u6539\u7f16\u5236\uff0c\u5c06\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u548c\u51c0\u8bc4\u4f30\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u79fb\u51fa\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\uff0c\u6539\u96b6\u4e3a\u56fd\u9632\u5927\u5b66\u9644\u5c5e\u5355\u4f4d\uff0c\u5927\u6279\u7684\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u95e8\u751f\u7fa4\u8d77\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u6e38\u8bf4\u56fd\u4f1a\u5e76\u5411\u5a92\u4f53\u6295\u4e66\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u4e0d\u52a8\u5982\u5c71\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u98a0\u8986\u6839\u672c\u5047\u8bbe\u56fd\u5b89\u754c\u5de8\u661f<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u8e0f\u5165\u56fd\u5b89\u9886\u57df\u662f\u57281949\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fdb\u5165\u4f4d\u4e8e\u52a0\u5dde\u7684\u667a\u5e93\u300c\u5170\u5fb7\u516c\u53f8\u300d\uff0c\u4e0e\u7814\u62df\u51b7\u6218\u65f6\u671f\u6838\u6b66\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5bb6\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u540e\u6765\uff0c\u65f6\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u5c3c\u514b\u68ee\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u987e\u95ee\u7684\u5b63\u8f9b\u5409\u6b23\u8d4f\u4ed6\u7684\u624d\u8bc6\uff0c\u9080\u8bf7\u4ed6\u5230\u534e\u5e9c\u4efb\u804c\uff0c\u5e2e\u5fd9\u8bc4\u4f30\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u519b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u56fd\u9632\u3001\u60c5\u62a5\u5708\u7684\u6447\u6eda\u5de8\u661f\uff0c\u5168\u56e0\u98a0\u8986\u4e86\u6700\u6839\u672c\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u810d\u7099\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u529b\u9648\u4e2d\u592e\u60c5\u62a5\u5c40\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u6bdb\u989d(GDP)\uff0c\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u82cf\u8054\u519b\u8d39\u5728\u56fd\u6c11\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c(GNP)\u7684\u5360\u6bd4\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\uff0c\u82cf\u8054\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u6a21\u4e0d\u5982\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7684\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u519b\u8d39\u8d1f\u62c5\u6bd4\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7684\u66f4\u52a0\u6c89\u91cd\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\uff0c\u4e2d\u60c5\u5c40\u540e\u6765\u4e5f\u66f4\u6b63\u4e86\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u8bc4\u4f30\u5927\u9646\u5d1b\u8d77\u5c06\u5a01\u80c1\u7f8e\u56fd<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30002001\u5e74\uff0c\u65f6\u4efb\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u7684\u4f26\u65af\u6590\u6307\u6d3e\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u64b0\u5199\u300c\u56db\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u9632\u603b\u68c0\u8ba8\u300d\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u65b0\u603b\u7edf\u5c0f\u5e03\u5e0c\u4e0a\u4efb\u540e\u5341\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u5fc5\u987b\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\uff0c\u8981\u6307\u660e\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6218\u7565\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u5728\u6587\u4ef6\u4e2d\u7279\u522b\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u5d1b\u8d77\u5c06\u5a01\u80c1\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u4f46\u5c31\u5728\u6587\u4ef6\u5373\u5c06\u53d1\u5e03\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e5d\u4e00\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u987a\u5e94\u6700\u65b0\u6c11\u610f\uff0c\u6587\u4ef6\u7d27\u6025\u5927\u5e45\u4fee\u6539\uff0c\u52a0\u5165\u53cd\u6050\u5b57\u773c\u3002\u540e\u6765\u968f\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u4e0e\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u6218\u4e89\u65e5\u76ca\u767d\u70ed\u5316\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u7684\u7126\u70b9\u4e5f\u5c31\u4ece\u5927\u9646\u79fb\u5f00\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7f8e\u56fd\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u8303\u4e9a\u4f26(Aaron
\nFriedberg)\u662f\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u7684\u5f1f\u5b50\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u300c\u5b89\u8fea(\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u540d\u5b57\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81\u7684\u4eb2\u5207\u53eb\u6cd5)\u53ef\u6ca1\u56e0\u6b64\u8f6c\u79fb\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\uff0c\u51c0\u8bc4\u4f30\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u4ecd\u7136\u7ee7\u7eed\u8d44\u52a9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5a01\u80c1\u8bba\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u300d\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u66fe\u5bf9\u4ed6\u8fd9\u4e48\u8bf4\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u4eec\u519b\u65b9\u592a\u5fd9\u7740\u6253\u4ed7\u4e86\u3002\u300d\u5bf9\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653b\u6253\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u3001\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u548c\u5bf9\u6297\u6050\u6016\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u5206\u4e86\u5fc3\uff0c\u5ffd\u7565\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u4fc4\u56fd\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u30022015\u5e74\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u81ea\u4f20\u300c\u6700\u540e\u7684\u6b66\u58eb\u300d\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u987a\u5e26\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u4e5d\u4e00\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53ca\u5176\u540e\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e0d\u7528\u7535\u8111\u7f51\u5b89\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u76f2\u70b9<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u8bf4\uff0c\u300c\u7f51\u8def\u5b89\u5168\u300d\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u7684\u76f2\u70b9\u3002\u5362\u5361\u897f\u514b\u66fe\u5728\u5170\u5fb7\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u62c5\u4efb\u9ad8\u9636\u804c\u4f4d\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74\u4e3a\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u505a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u6848\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f51\u9645\u7f51\u8def\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u5a01\u80c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5e72\u9884\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u9a87\u5165\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u4f46\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u4ece\u4e0d\u5173\u6ce8\u8fd9\u70b9\uff0c\u300c\u5173\u4e8e\u7535\u8111\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\uff0c\u5b89\u8fea\u4ece\u524d\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u77e5\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u540c\u6837\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u77e5\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u957f\u4e8e\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\uff0c\u5374\u4e00\u76f4\u62d2\u7edd\u4f7f\u7528\u5f53\u4eca\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0d\u53ef\u6216\u7f3a\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u7535\u8111\u3002\u670b\u53cb\u77e5\u9053\u4ed6\u9177\u7231\u9605\u8bfb\uff0c\u90fd\u529d\u4ed6\u81f3\u5c11\u8981\u62ff\u82f9\u679c\u5e73\u677f\u7535\u8111iPad\u6216\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u7535\u5b50\u4e66\u9605\u8bfb\u5668Kindle\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u603b\u662f\u53cd\u5bf9\u3002\u4ed6\u53ea\u6709\u300c\u95f4\u63a5\u300d\u4e0a\u7f51\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff1a\u4ed6\u4ee5\u524d\u5728\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u7684\u52a9\u7406\u6bcf\u5468\u4f1a\u987a\u9053\u6765\u8bbf\u51e0\u6b21\uff0c\u628a\u4ed6\u7535\u90ae\u4fe1\u7bb1\u4e2d\u7684\u6765\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7ed9\u4ed6\u542c\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u66ff\u4ed6\u56de\u4fe1\u3002\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14\u8fd9\u4e48\u8bf4\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u4ece\u4e0d\u4e0a\u7f51\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u3000\u3000       \u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u7b56\u7565\u5bb6\u9a6c\u6b47\u5c14(Andrew Marshall)\u6216\u8bb8\u5bf9\u4e00\u822c\u6c11\u4f17\u800c\u8a00\u6ca1\u6ca1\u65e0\u95fb\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u3001\u519b\u4e8b\u5708\u5374\u662f\u5927\u5e08\u7ea7\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u4ed6\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u82cf…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60026"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=60026"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60026\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=60026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=60026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=60026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}