{"id":65278,"date":"2019-02-16T22:04:13","date_gmt":"2019-02-16T11:04:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=65278"},"modified":"2019-02-16T22:04:14","modified_gmt":"2019-02-16T11:04:14","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e9%96%83%e7%8f%be%e4%ba%94%e8%ad%a6%e8%a8%8a-%e6%98%af%e6%88%90%e9%95%b7%e6%b8%9b%e7%b7%a9%e9%82%84%e6%98%af%e8%a1%b0%e9%80%80%e9%a0%90%e5%85%86%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=65278","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9583\u73fe\u4e94\u8b66\u8a0a \u662f\u6210\u9577\u6e1b\u7de9\u9084\u662f\u8870\u9000\u9810\u5146\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u3010\u718a\u732b\u8d22\u7ecf\u3011\u5f9e\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u5230\u9280\u884c\u653e\u6b3e\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5468\u4f86\u516c\u5e03\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u75b2\u5f31\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u6fc0\u8d77\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7a76\u7adf\u53ea\u662f\u6e1b\u901f\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u6b63\u6b65\u5411\u8870\u9000\u7684\u8faf\u8ad6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u6b62\uff0c\u591a\u6578\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\u6210\u9577\u6e1b\u901f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8f03\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c55\u671b\u96c6\u5718\uff08EOG\uff09\u9996\u5e2d\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9b91\u7a46\u723e\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u9019\u53ea\u662f\u5f9e\u6210\u9577\u8f03\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u904e\u6e21\u5230\u8f03\u548c\u7de9\u7684\u6b65\u8abf\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\u6295\u8cc7\u9280\u884cNatixis\u9996\u5e2d\u7f8e\u6d32\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u62c9\u6c83\u683c\u7d0d\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u7387\u4e0b\u6ed1\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6709\u591a\u5927\u3002\u300d\u64da\u4ed6\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u6210\u9577\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u76843%\u6e1b\u7de9\u5230\u5927\u7d042%\uff0c\u8207\u8fd1\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u591a\u534a\u7de9\u6162\u64f4\u5f35\u7684\u6b65\u8abf\u76f8\u7b26\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\u7f8e\u570b\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u5f37\uff0c1\u6708\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u6578\u905430.4\u842c\u4eba\uff1b\u5e73\u5747\u5de5\u8cc7\u5e74\u589e3.2%\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1\u5341\u5e74\u9ad8\u9ede\uff1b12\u6708\u8077\u7f3a\u66f4\u9054\u5230730\u842c\u500b\uff0c\u5275\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u9810\u793a\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u6708\u4f01\u696d\u4ecd\u53ef\u671b\u5927\u8209\u62db\u8058\uff0c\u70ba\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u529b\u7684\u652f\u6490\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\u4f46\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u9762\u81e8\u91cd\u91cd\u6311\u6230\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6700\u8fd1\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce2\u52d5\u3001\u7f8e\u4e2d\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u3001\u653f\u5e9c\u5c40\u90e8\u95dc\u9580\uff08\u66ab\u5df2\u89e3\u6c7a\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6e1b\u7a05\u8207\u64f4\u5927\u806f\u90a6\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u6548\u61c9\u6d88\u9000\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Fed\uff09\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u5347\u606f\u884c\u52d5\u4e5f\u9020\u6210\u501f\u8cb8\u6d3b\u52d5\u964d\u6eab\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\u4eca\u65e5\u7f8e\u570b\u5831\uff08USA Today\uff09\u628a\u6700\u8fd1\u7f8e\u570b\u9583\u73fe\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8b66\u8a0a\u548c\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u8a55\u8ad6\u6574\u7406\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. \u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u9661\u964d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\n\u7f8e\u570b\u53bb\u5e7412\u6708\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u6ed1\u843d1.2%\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u6c7d\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff1b\u4f46\u5254\u9664\u6c7d\u6cb9\u3001\u6c7d\u8eca\u3001\u5efa\u6750\u3001\u98df\u7269\u670d\u52d9\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u4e5f\u5927\u6e1b1.7%\u3002\u51f1\u6295\u5b8f\u89c0\uff08Capital Economics\uff09\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u53d7\u96f6\u552e\u92b7\u552e\u840e\u7e2e\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u53bb\u5e74\u7b2c4\u5b63\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u6bdb\u984d\uff08GDP\uff09\u5b63\u589e\u5e74\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u986f\u8457\u6e1b\u7de9\uff0c\u5f9e\u539f\u4f30\u76843.1%\u6389\u52302.5%\u5de6\u53f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nPantheon Macroeconomics\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u859b\u5f17\u68ee\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5546\u52d9\u90e8\u9019\u4efd\u5ef6\u9072\u56db\u5468\u767c\u5e03\u7684\u96f6\u552e\u5831\u544a\u5448\u73fe\u5168\u9762\u6027\u7684\u75b2\u8edf\uff0c\u6578\u64da\u5f31\u5f97\u555f\u4eba\u7591\u7ac7\uff0c\u8207\u6c11\u9593\u5831\u544a\u5448\u73fe12\u6708\u9023\u9396\u96f6\u552e\u5e97\u92b7\u552e\u5f37\u52c1\u5927\u7570\u5176\u8da3\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4e4b\u524d\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5c40\u90e8\u95dc\u958035\u5929\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0d\u5546\u52d9\u90e8\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\u9020\u6210\u5e72\u64fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. \u4f01\u696d\u88c1\u54e1\u4eba\u6578\u5347\u9ad8<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\n\u52de\u5de5\u90e8\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u5728\u6b62\u65bc9\u65e5\u7684\u4e00\u5468\uff0c\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u9818\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u91d1\u4eba\u6578\u5f9e23.5\u842c\u4eba\u589e\u81f323.9\u842c\u4eba\uff1b\u7b2c4\u5b63\u7533\u9818\u4eba\u6578\u5e73\u5747\u70ba22\u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u4e5f\u9ad8\u65bc\u524d\u5b63\u768421.1\u842c\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nHigh Frequency Economics\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8607\u5229\u6587\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u9019\u9805\u88c1\u54e1\u6307\u6a19\u8d70\u52e2\u547c\u61c9\u300c\u5c31\u696d\u6210\u9577\u7a0d\u5fae\u6e1b\u7de9\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u300d\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u55ae\u6708\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u6578\u5c07\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u768422\u842c\u4eba\u964d\u5230\u4eca\u5e74\u768417\u842c\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. \u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u8207\u4f01\u696d\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6e1b\u5f31<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\n\u7d93\u6fdf\u7814\u7a76\u806f\u5408\u6703\u8aaa\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b1\u6708\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6578\u964d\u523018\u500b\u6708\u4f4e\u9ede\uff1b\u5c0f\u4f01\u696d\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6578\u4ecd\u8655\u65bc\u6b77\u53f2\u9ad8\u6a94\uff0c\u4f46\u5df2\u964d\u52302016\u5e74\u5927\u9078\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u6e96\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e0b\u964d\u4e3b\u8981\u6b78\u548e\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u52d5\u76ea\u3001\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u53ca\u653f\u5e9c\u95dc\u9580\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nTD Economics\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9ea5\u6d1b\u5fb7\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u56de\u7a69\u52a0\u4e0a\u7f8e\u4e2d\u82e5\u6572\u5b9a\u8cbf\u6613\u5354\u8b70\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u6708\u7684\u5c55\u671b\u53ef\u80fd\u597d\u8f49\u3002\u51f1\u6295\u5b8f\u89c0\u9996\u5e2d\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u827e\u8a31\u6c83\u65af\u5247\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5728\u5347\u62b5\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u9ad8\u5cf0\u5f8c\uff0c\u6ce8\u5b9a\u6703\u8f49\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. \u670d\u52d9\u696d\u666f\u6c23\u4e0b\u6ed1<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\n\u4e00\u9805\u8861\u91cf\u7926\u696d\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u71df\u9020\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u516c\u53f8\u8a02\u55ae\u8207\u751f\u7522\u7b49\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4e5f\u57281\u6708\u4e0b\u6ed1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u95dc\u9580\u4e8b\u4ef6\u885d\u64ca\u653f\u5e9c\u5408\u7d04\u627f\u5305\u5546\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u8cbf\u6613\u5c0d\u5cd9\u5247\u4f7f\u4fe1\u5fc3\u666e\u904d\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. \u9280\u884c\u653e\u6b3e\u7e2e\u6e1b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\n\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5c0d\u9280\u884c\u8cc7\u6df1\u653e\u6b3e\u4e3b\u7ba1\u7684\u8a2a\u8abf\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u9280\u884c\u696d\u7b2c4\u5b63\u5c0d\u4f01\u696d\u548c\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u653e\u8cb8\u6a19\u6e96\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u56b4\u683c\u3002\u62c9\u6c83\u683c\u7d0d\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e00\u9805\u8861\u91cf\u9280\u884c\u5c0d\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u653e\u6b3e\u610f\u9858\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u51fa\u73fe2009\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u964d\u5e45\uff1b\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u9280\u884c\u5c0d\u4f01\u696d\u653e\u6b3e\u6a19\u6e96\u8da8\u56b4\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u7e2e\u6e1b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\u62c9\u6c83\u683c\u7d0d\u8aaa\uff0c\u9280\u884c\u7e2e\u6e1b\u90e8\u5206\u653e\u6b3e\uff0c\u9069\u9022\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u52a0\u5287\u671f\u9593\u5c0d\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u8cb8\u6b3e\u6236\u7684\u653e\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u672c\u5b63\u9280\u884c\u653e\u6b3e\u6a19\u6e96\u53ef\u671b\u653e\u5bec\u4e9b\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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