{"id":84808,"date":"2020-08-29T15:00:56","date_gmt":"2020-08-29T05:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=84808"},"modified":"2020-08-29T15:00:56","modified_gmt":"2020-08-29T05:00:56","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e6%80%bb%e7%bb%9f%e5%a4%a7%e9%80%892020%ef%bc%9a%e6%b0%91%e8%b0%83%e6%98%af%e5%90%a6%e4%be%9d%e7%84%b6%e5%8f%af%e4%bf%a1-%e4%b8%93%e5%ae%b6%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=84808","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u90092020\uff1a\u6c11\u8c03\u662f\u5426\u4f9d\u7136\u53ef\u4fe1 \u4e13\u5bb6\u5206\u6790\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u61c2"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"eachpage\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"content_\">\n<p>\u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u6c11\u5c06\u572811\u67083\u65e5\u9009\u51fa\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c4a\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7684\u73b0\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5bf9\u9635\u4ee3\u8868\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u51fa\u6218\u7684\u62dc\u767b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5404\u5bb6\u6c11\u8c03\u673a\u6784\u51fa\u5c3d\u6d51\u8eab\u89e3\u6570\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u63a2\u660e\u4e24\u4eba\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u652f\u6301\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u6c11\u8c03\u4e2d\uff0c\u524d\u526f\u603b\u7edf\u62dc\u767b\u7684\u652f\u6301\u7387\u9886\u5148\u7279\u6717\u666e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u57282016\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u9519\u5f97\u79bb\u8c31\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\uff0c\u8fd8\u503c\u5f97\u76f8\u4fe1\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"content_\">\n<p><b>2020\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u53ef\u4fe1\u5417\uff1f<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6c11\u8c03\u4e0d\u662f\u7ecf\u5e38\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u9519\u8bef\u8db3\u591f\u9891\u7e41\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u5176\u4fdd\u6301\u8b66\u60d5\uff0c\u201d \u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u574e\u8d1d\u5c14\uff08W. 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Reagan\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u91cc\u6839\u6700\u7ec8\u4ee5\u63a5\u8fd110%\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u4f18\u52bf\u8d62\u4e0b\u5927\u9009\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u5e74\u6c11\u8c03\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u5927\u9009\u6570\u65e5\u524d\u505c\u6b62\u62bd\u6837\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5927\u9009\u524d\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u5468\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba\u4e2d\uff0c\u91cc\u6839\u663e\u7136\u51fb\u8d25\u4e86\u5361\u7279\uff0c\u626d\u8f6c\u4e86\u9009\u6c11\u7684\u89c2\u611f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u6b63\u503c\u4f0a\u6717\u4eba\u8d28\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u9009\u524d\u6709\u8bf8\u591a\u8ff9\u8c61\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u91ca\u653e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u8d28\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5728\u5927\u9009\u524d\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6210\u771f\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u63d0\u9192\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\uff0c\u5361\u7279\u5728\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u4e0a\u7684\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u201d\u574e\u8d1d\u5c14\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8ba9\u5f53\u5e74\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u59cb\u6599\u4e0d\u53ca\u7684\u8fd8\u6709\u201c\u5bb3\u7f9e\u7684\u91cc\u6839\u9009\u6c11\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6b64\u524d\u662f\u4e2d\u95f4\u9009\u6c11\u6216\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u652f\u6301\u8005\uff0c\u5728\u5f53\u5e74\u9009\u62e9\u6295\u7968\u7ed9\u91cc\u6839\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u793e\u4ea4\u538b\u529b\u7b49\u79cd\u79cd\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e76\u65e0\u5bf9\u6c11\u8c03\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u8bf4\u5b9e\u8bdd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2012\u5e74\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u8d1f\u76db\u540d\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u673a\u6784\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u76d6\u6d1b\u666e\uff08Gallup\uff09\uff0c\u4e00\u8def\u9884\u6d4b\u7f57\u59c6\u5c3c\uff08Mitt Romney\uff09\u5c06\u51fb\u8d25\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\uff0c\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u3002\u9009\u524d\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u76d6\u6d1b\u666e\u6c11\u8c03\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7f57\u59c6\u5c3c\u4ee549%\u652f\u6301\u7387\u9886\u5148\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u768448%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u4ee5\u63a5\u8fd14%\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u8d62\u4e0b\u9009\u4e3e\u3002\u201c\u76d6\u6d1b\u666e\u81ea\u6b64\u5c31\u4e0d\u518d\u505a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u6c11\u8c03\u4e86\uff0c\u201d\u574e\u8d1d\u5c14\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"content_\">\n<p>\u76d6\u6d1b\u666e\u7684\u5927\u9009\u6c11\u8c03\u9eef\u7136\u843d\u5e55\uff0c\u4f46\u53e6\u4e00\u5bb6\u6c11\u8c03\u673a\u6784\u57282012\u5e74\u58f0\u540d\u5927\u566a\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u5948\u7279\u00b7\u897f\u5c14\u5f17\uff08Nate Silver\uff09\u65d7\u4e0b\u7684538\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u7f51\u7ad9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u51fa\u7f8e\u56fd\u5168\u90e850\u4e2a\u5dde\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u968f\u5373\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u201c\u6c11\u8c03\u4e4b\u795e\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u897f\u5c14\u5f17\u5728\u5185\u7684\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6c11\u8c03\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u90fd\u57282016\u5e74\u72e0\u72e0\u5730\u683d\u4e86\u8ddf\u5934\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5168\u56fd\u6c11\u8c03\u4f9d\u8d56\u5404\u5dde\u6c11\u8c03\uff0c\u800c\u6c11\u8c03\u5728\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u3001\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5dde\u3001\u5a01\u65af\u5eb7\u8f9b\u5dde\u90fd\u9519\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e89\u6301\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5dde\u5206\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u6c11\u8c03\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u6781\u5927\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"content_\">\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u7968\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u589e\u6dfb\u4e86\u56f0\u96be\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5168\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6c11\u8c03\u5bf9\u666e\u9009\u7968\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u76f8\u5bf9\u51c6\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u7968\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5374\u9519\u4e86\uff0c\u201d\u574e\u8d1d\u5c14\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2016\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u00b7\u514b\u6797\u987f\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u666e\u9009\u7968\u6bd4\u7279\u6717\u666e\u591a300\u4e07\u7968\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u7968\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\uff0c\u5979\u8f93\u6389\u4e86\u603b\u7edf\u4e4b\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><b>\u201c\u5bb3\u7f9e\u7684\u201d\u9009\u6c11<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u6709\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8ddf1980\u5e74\u7684\u5927\u9009\u7c7b\u4f3c\uff0c2016\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86&#8221;\u5bb3\u7f9e\u7684\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9009\u6c11&#8221;\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u51fa\u4e8e\u79cd\u79cd\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u652f\u6301\u8005\u6ca1\u5411\u6c11\u8c03\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005\u8892\u9732\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u6295\u7968\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6c11\u8c03\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u6295\u7968\u7ed3\u679c\u5b58\u6709\u8bef\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5df2\u7ecf\u62c5\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u56db\u5e74\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6709&#8217;\u5bb3\u7f9e\u7684\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9009\u6c11&#8217;\uff0c\u201d\u574e\u8d1d\u5c14\u5bf9BBC\u4e2d\u6587\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u52a0\u5927\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u96be\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p><b>\u90a3\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u201c\u5bb3\u7f9e\u7684\u62dc\u767b\u9009\u6c11\u201d\u5462\uff1f<\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u574e\u8d1d\u5c14\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u4e0d\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u652f\u6301\u8005\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u5728\u515a\u4ee3\u4f1a\u9996\u65e5\u5b89\u6392\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u6b8a\u73af\u8282\uff1a\u8ba9\u4e00\u6279\u5171\u548c\u515a\u4eba\u53d1\u58f0\u652f\u6301\u62dc\u767b\u3002\u66fe\u7ecf\u53c2\u4e0e2016\u5e74\u5171\u548c\u515a\u603b\u7edf\u521d\u9009\u7684\u524d\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u5dde\u5dde\u957f\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u5361\u897f\u5947\uff08John 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