{"id":85254,"date":"2020-09-06T21:25:55","date_gmt":"2020-09-06T11:25:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=85254"},"modified":"2020-09-06T21:25:55","modified_gmt":"2020-09-06T11:25:55","slug":"%e6%91%a9%e6%a0%b9%ef%bc%9a%e4%ba%ba%e6%b0%91%e5%b8%81%e6%9c%89%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e5%9c%a810%e5%b9%b4%e5%86%85%e6%88%90%e4%b8%ba%e4%b8%96%e7%95%8c%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%89%e5%a4%a7%e5%82%a8%e5%a4%87%e8%b4%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=85254","title":{"rendered":"\u6469\u6839\uff1a\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u572810\u5e74\u5185\u6210\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u7b2c\u4e09\u5927\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229(Morgan Stanley)\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8fdb\u5165\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5916\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u589e\u52a0\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u6210\u4e3a\u4ec5\u6b21\u4e8e\u7f8e\u5143\u548c\u6b27\u5143\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u7b2c\u4e09\u5927\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u53d1\u5e03\u6b63\u503c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u52aa\u529b\u63a8\u52a8\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e0a\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u7ea6\u5360\u5168\u7403\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u76842%\u3002\u4f46\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u4eec\u8bf4\uff0c\u52302030\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5347\u81f35%\u81f310%\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u65e5\u5706\u548c\u82f1\u9551\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8be5\u9884\u6d4b\u91cd\u7533\u4e86\u8be5\u884c\u57282019\u5e742\u6708\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u6b64\u540e\u768418\u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u52a0\u5927\u4e86\u5141\u8bb8\u66f4\u591a\u5916\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u8fdb\u5165\u56fd\u5185\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e5f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u5730\u8f6c\u5411\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5bfb\u6c42\u6bd4\u5176\u5b83\u5730\u533a\u76f8\u5bf9\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u6f5c\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229(Morgan Stanley)\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u672a\u676510\u5e74\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u5165\u5c06\u8d85\u8fc7\u5916\u56fd\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u8d44(FDI)\uff0c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u5c06\u8fbe\u52303\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u52302020\u5e74\uff0c\u79c1\u4eba\u90e8\u95e8\u548c\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u7ba1\u7406\u673a\u6784\u5c06\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e09\u5e74\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e26\u6765\u8d85\u8fc71500\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u6d41\u5165\uff0c\u7a81\u663e\u51fa\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u3002\u52302021- 2030\u5e74\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u6d41\u5165\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5e94\u8fbe\u52302000 – 3000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5168\u7403\u8d44\u4ea7\u5c06\u4ee5\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5f62\u5f0f\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u4e00\u76f4\u96be\u4ee5\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5c42\u9762\u83b7\u5f97\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0a\u5bf9\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u6c47\u7387\u4fdd\u6301\u4e25\u683c\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u9632\u6b62\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u6d41\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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\u7136\u800c\uff0c2015\u5e74\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08IMF\uff09\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5177\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u4e3e\u52a8\uff0c\u5c06\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u7eb3\u5165\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u7bee\u5b50\u2014\u2014\u5373\u7279\u522b\u63d0\u6b3e\u6743\uff08SDR\uff09\u8d27\u5e01\u7bee\u5b50\u3002\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u4e8e2016\u5e7410\u6708\u52a0\u5165\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u7bee\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229(Morgan Stanley)\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u52302021\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5347\u503c\u81f31\u7f8e\u5143\u51516.6\u5143\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u7387\u63a5\u8fd16.85\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u9274\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5f00\u653e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8de8\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u8de8\u5883\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u6574\u5408\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u56fd\u8de8\u5883\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u201d\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229\u56fd\u9645\u7b56\u7565\u5e08James Lord\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u8bf4\u3002 \u201c\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5c06\u9700\u8981\u6301\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5176\u50a8\u5907\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

Lord \u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6839\u636e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u56fd\u9645\u5316\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u622a\u81f32019\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7ea6\u670970\u5bb6\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u6301\u6709\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u50a8\u5907\uff0c\u800c2018\u5e74\u672b\u4e3a60\u5bb6\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
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\u5206\u6790\u5bb6\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u9760\u51fa\u53e3\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u589e\u957f\uff09\u5c06\u8981\u6c42\u8be5\u56fd\u6210\u4e3a\u8d44\u672c\u8fdb\u53e3\u56fd\u3002\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8d38\u6613\u548c\u5411\u5916\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u4ed8\u6b3e\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u57282025\u5e74\u4e4b\u524d\u8f6c\u4e3a\u8d1f\u503c\uff0c\u52302030\u5e74\u8fbe\u5230GDP\u7684\u8d1f1.2\uff05\u3002<\/p>\n

\u62a5\u544a\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u52302025-30\u5e74\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u81f3\u5c11\u9700\u89811800\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u51c0\u5916\u8d44\u6d41\u5165\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f25\u8865\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u6f5c\u5728\u98ce\u9669<\/b><\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u6784\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u56f4\u7ed5\u5176\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u6cbb\u538b\u529b\u4ecd\u6709\u5f85\u89c2\u5bdf\u3002\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u7279\u6717\u666e\uff08Donald Trump\uff09\u4e8e11\u6708\u7ade\u9009\u8fde\u4efb\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u4e24\u4e2a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u5df2\u6ce2\u53ca\u6280\u672f\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u6559\u6388 Michael Pettis \u5728\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u4ef6\u4e2d\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4ecd\u7136\u5bf9\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u50a8\u5907\u8d27\u5e01\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\u6301\u6000\u7591\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u7406\u7531\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u53d1\u5c55\u505a\u51fa\u957f\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u201d \u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u4e86\u91cd\u65b0\u5e73\u8861\u5176\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9700\u6c42\u6765\u6e90\u800c\u5fc5\u987b\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u5e45\u5ea6\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5386\u53f2\u5148\u4f8b\u90fd\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8c03\u6574\u5c06\u6d89\u53ca\u7ecf\u6d4e\u751a\u81f3\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u9762\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229\uff08Morgan Stanley\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9884\u6d4b\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u5c06\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e0a\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u4e00\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5305\u62ec\u4e2d\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u5916\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u901f\u5ea6\u6162\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u52a8\u8361\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u98ce\u9669\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u7f8e\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u5347\u7ea7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9519\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u662f\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u56fd\u9645\u5316\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u4ee5\u53ca\u50a8\u5907\u7ba1\u7406\u4eba\u613f\u610f\u5728\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e2d\u589e\u52a0\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u503a\u5238\u3002\u201d \u201c\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u50a8\u5907\u8d44\u4ea7\u4efd\u989d\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6765\u81ea\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5c1a\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f1a\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6548\u4eff\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u53ca\u65f6\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f00\u653e\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

[\u00a0\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u6587\u6458\u8bd1 – \u539f\u6587 CNBC<\/b>\u00a0— 2020\u5e749\u67086\u65e5]<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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