\u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u5728\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u8bc4\u8bba\u89c6\u9891\u4e2d\u900f\u9732\u4e86\u4ed6\u5bf92020\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4eba\u62dc\u767b\u3002<\/div>\n
\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4efb\u6559\u4e8e\u534e\u76db\u987f\u7279\u533a\u7684\u7f8e\u5229\u575a\u5927\u5b66(American University)\u3002\u4ed6\u56e0\u6b63\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u81ea1984\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u8fd1\u4e5d\u6b21\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u800c\u95fb\u540d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8bef\u5224\u76842016\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u3002<\/div>\n
\u7b80\u5355\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e00\u4e0b\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/div>\n
\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u201c13\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\u201d\uff0c \u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u662f\u5426\u9648\u8ff0\uff0c\u7528\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u73b0\u4efb\u653f\u515a\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u5f53\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5176\u4e2d\u67096\u4e2a\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u9648\u8ff0\u4e3a\u201c\u5426\u201d\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5c31\u4f1a\u843d\u9009\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u5c11\u4e8e6\u4e2a\uff0c\u6b64\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5c31\u4f1a\u83b7\u80dc\u3002<\/div>\n
\u8bdd\u4e0d\u591a\u8bf4\uff0c\u6765\u770b\u770b\u5728\u8fd9\u5957\u9884\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5982\u4f55\uff1a<\/div>\n
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<\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/inews.gtimg.com\/newsapp_bt\/0\/11981135078\/641\")
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
1.\u653f\u515a\u6388\u6743(Party Mandate)\uff1a\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u540e\uff0c\u73b0\u4efb\u653f\u515a\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u4e2d\u7684\u5e2d\u4f4d\u6bd4\u524d\u4e00\u6b21\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u540e\u591a\u3002<\/div>\n
\u5426\u3002\u201c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u57282018\u5e74\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u843d\u8d25\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
2. \u7ade\u4e89(Contest)\uff1a\u73b0\u4efb\u653f\u515a\u7684\u63d0\u540d\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u4e25\u91cd\u7ade\u4e89\u3002<\/div>\n
\u662f\u3002\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u5171\u548c\u515a\u4eba\u6311\u6218\u7279\u6717\u666e\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
3.\u73b0\u4efb(Incumbency)\uff1a\u73b0\u4efb\u653f\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u662f\u73b0\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u3002<\/div>\n
\u662f\u3002\u201c\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u4ed6\u6ca1\u6709\u4e0b\u53f0\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
4. \u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9(Third party)\uff1a\u6ca1\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u653f\u515a\u6216\u72ec\u7acb\u7ade\u9009\u3002<\/div>\n
\u662f\u3002\u201c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4f83\u7237(Kanye West)\u58f0\u79f0\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u7ade\u9009\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u4e24\u515a\u7ade\u9009\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
5. \u77ed\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e(Short-term economy)\uff1a\u5728\u7ade\u9009\u671f\u95f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6ca1\u6709\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/div>\n
\u5426\u3002\u201c\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u5df2\u5c06\u7ecf\u6d4e\u63a8\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
6. \u957f\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e(Long-term economy)\uff1a\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u4eba\u5747\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7b49\u4e8e\u6216\u8d85\u8fc7\u524d\u4e24\u4e2a\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/div>\n
\u5426\u3002\u201c\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u5df2\u5bfc\u81f42020\u5e74GDP\u51fa\u73b0\u8d1f\u589e\u957f\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
7. \u653f\u7b56\u53d8\u5316(Policy change)\uff1a\u73b0\u4efb\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u56fd\u5bb6\u653f\u7b56\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/div>\n
\u662f\u3002\u201c\u901a\u8fc7\u51cf\u7a0e\uff0c\u4f46\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u884c\u653f\u547d\u4ee4\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
8. \u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u8361(Social unrest)\uff1a\u5728\u4efb\u671f\u5185\u6ca1\u6709\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u8361\u3002<\/div>\n
\u5426\u3002\u201c\u8857\u4e0a\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u4e71\uff0c\u66b4\u529b\u8db3\u4ee5\u5a01\u80c1\u793e\u4f1a\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
9. \u4e11\u95fb(Scandal)\uff1a\u73b0\u4efb\u653f\u5e9c\u65e0\u91cd\u5927\u4e11\u95fb\u3002<\/div>\n
\u5426\u3002\u201c\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u6240\u6599\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u88ab\u5f39\u52be\u4e86\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fd8\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u4e11\u95fb\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
10. \u5916\u4ea4\/\u519b\u4e8b\u5931\u8d25(Foreign\/military failure)\uff1a\u73b0\u4efb\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5916\u4ea4\u3001\u519b\u4e8b\u65b9\u9762\u6ca1\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u5931\u8bef\u3002<\/div>\n
\u662f\u3002\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6709\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e9b\u975e\u5e38\u8270\u96be\u7684\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u4f46\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
11. \u5916\u4ea4\/\u519b\u4e8b\u6210\u529f(Foreign\/military success)\uff1a\u73b0\u4efb\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5916\u4ea4\u6216\u519b\u4e8b\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e0a\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u6210\u529f\u3002<\/div>\n
\u5426\u3002\u201c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6ca1\u6709\u5927\u7684\u3001\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u7684\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u53d6\u5f97\u4efb\u4f55\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u6210\u529f\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
12. \u5728\u4f4d\u8005\u4e2a\u4eba\u9b45\u529b(Incumbent charisma)\uff1a\u5728\u4f4d\u7684\u653f\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u6781\u5177\u9b45\u529b\u6216\u662f\u4e00\u540d\u6c11\u65cf\u82f1\u96c4\u3002<\/div>\n
\u5426\u3002\u201c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u51fa\u8272\u7684\u8868\u6f14\u8005\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u53ea\u5438\u5f15\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
13. \u6311\u6218\u8005\u4e2a\u4eba\u9b45\u529b(Challenger charisma)\uff1a\u5177\u6709\u6311\u6218\u6027\u7684\u653f\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u65e2\u65e0\u4eba\u683c\u9b45\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u975e\u6c11\u65cf\u82f1\u96c4\u3002<\/div>\n
\u662f\u3002\u201c\u62dc\u767b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u6d3e\u3001\u5584\u89e3\u4eba\u610f\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5e76\u4e0d\u9f13\u821e\u4eba\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u8d85\u51e1\u7684\u9b45\u529b\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
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<\/div>\n![\"\u201c\u6311\u6218\u8005\u201d\u62dc\u767b\"](\"https:\/\/inews.gtimg.com\/newsapp_bt\/0\/12257855963\/641\")
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u201c\u6311\u6218\u8005\u201d\u62dc\u767b<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u5728\u201c13\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\u4e2d\u201d\uff0c7\u4e2a\u9648\u8ff0\u4e3a\u201c\u5426\u201d\uff0c\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u9884\u6d4b\u6311\u6218\u8005\u62dc\u767b\u5c06\u8d62\u5f97\u9009\u4e3e\u3002<\/div>\n
\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7ade\u9009\u516c\u5173\u4e3b\u4efb\u8482\u59c6\u00b7\u83ab\u5854\u592b(Tim Murtaugh)\u5728\u5411CNBC\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u53cd\u9a73\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/div>\n
\u201c\u8fd9\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u4ece\u672a\u6709\u8fc7\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e\u603b\u7edf\u4e3a\u6240\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u521b\u9020\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u548c\u62dc\u767b47\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u548c\u5bf9\u6781\u5de6\u7684\u9ed8\u8bb8\u4e4b\u95f4\u505a\u51fa\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u518d\u6e05\u695a\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4e86\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
\u83ab\u5854\u592b\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u6c11\u5c06\u51b3\u5b9a\u8fd9\u6b21\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5b66\u8005\u6216\u6559\u6388\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
\u62dc\u767b\u7684\u7ade\u9009\u56e2\u961f\u6ca1\u6709\u7acb\u5373\u56de\u5e94CNBC\u7684\u7f6e\u8bc4\u8bf7\u6c42\u3002<\/div>\n
\u6c11\u8c03\uff1a\u201c\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5feb\u7167\u201d\uff1f<\/div>\n
\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u5728\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u7684\u89c6\u9891\u4e2d\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6c11\u8c03\u4e13\u5bb6\u548c\u6743\u5a01\u4eba\u58eb\u5728\u62a5\u9053\u9009\u4e3e\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u5728\u62a5\u9053\u8d5b\u9a6c\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u9009\u6c11\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u7ade\u9009\u7684\u628a\u620f\u6240\u611a\u5f04\u3002\u9009\u6c11\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u653f\u515a\u6cbb\u7406\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u6765\u6295\u7968\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5341\u5206\u9ad8\u6548\u3002<\/div>\n
\u57282016\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u524d\u51e0\u5468\uff0c\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf\u663e\u793a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7565\u80dc\u8fc7\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u00b7\u514b\u6797\u987f(Hillary Clinton)\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u591a\u663e\u793a\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc\u9886\u5148\u3002<\/div>\n
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<\/div>\n![\"\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u901a\u5f80\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u94a5\u5319\u300b](\"https:\/\/inews.gtimg.com\/newsapp_bt\/0\/12257846196\/641\")
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u901a\u5f80\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u94a5\u5319\u300b (The Keys to The White House)<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u4f46\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u653f\u6cbb\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e2d\u7ecf\u5e38\u88ab\u4f18\u5148\u8003\u8651\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u8de8\u6807\u7b7e\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u5206\u6790\u548c\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u7684\u8ba1\u6570\u3002<\/div>\n
\u53d6\u800c\u4ee3\u4e4b\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf\u7740\u773c\u4e8e13\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7c7b\u522b\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u901a\u5f80\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u94a5\u5319\u201d\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u4e0e\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u73b0\u4efb\u653f\u515a\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u63d0\u540d\u4eba\u672c\u8eab\u3002<\/div>\n
\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u6c11\u8c03\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u201c\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5feb\u7167\u201d\u3002<\/div>\n
\u201c\u65e9\u671f\u6c11\u8c03\u5bf9\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u6d4b\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u4ea7\u751f\u4efb\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6c11\u8c03\u5bf9\u57fa\u8c03\u6ca1\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u57fa\u8c03\u57fa\u4e8e\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u957f\u671f\u548c\u77ed\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u4e11\u95fb\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u8361\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u5916\u4ea4\u519b\u4e8b\u7684\u6210\u8d25\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4f4d\u603b\u7edf\u5728\u5168\u56fd\u6027\u5371\u673a\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u6c11\u8c03\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u2018\u805a\u65d7\u6548\u5e94(Rally round the flag effect)\u2019\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\u521d\u65f6\uff0c\u6c11\u8c03\u4ec5\u6709\u5c0f\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4ed6\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u65ad\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u7535\u89c6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8fdb\u884c\u81ea\u5706\u5176\u8bf4\u3002\u800c\u62dc\u767b\u7684\u77e5\u540d\u5ea6\u6781\u4f4e\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
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\u6839\u636e\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4f1a\u4e25\u91cd\u6076\u5316\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8fde\u4efb\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u201c\u5982\u679c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e0\u4e3a\u75ab\u60c5\u800c\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u5bf9\u624b\u51e0\u4e4e\u65e0\u5173\u7d27\u8981\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u4e5f\u597d\uff0c\u4f2f\u5c3c\u00b7\u6851\u5fb7\u65af(Bernie Sanders)\u4e5f\u597d\u3002\u9009\u4e3e\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u63a7\u5236\u767d\u5bab\u7684\u653f\u515a\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u8be5\u518d\u6267\u653f\u56db\u5e74\u7684\u6295\u7968\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
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\u4f46\u6839\u636e\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/div>\n
\u4e0d\u8fc7\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u6211\u8fd8\u6ca1\u505a\u6700\u540e\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u6b63\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u4e8b\u6001\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u201d<\/div>\n
\u6c11\u8c03\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u4ef7\u503c\uff1f<\/div>\n
1936\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u4e54\u6cbb\u00b7\u76d6\u6d1b\u666e(George Gallup)\u6210\u7acb\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u6240\uff0c\u4e0e\u201c\u6587\u5b66\u6587\u6458\u201d\uff08Literary Digest\uff0c\u6b64\u524d\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e861916\u5e74\u30011920\u5e74\u30011924\u5e74\u30011928\u5e74\u4e0e1932\u5e74\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\uff09\u540c\u65f6\u9884\u6d4b\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/div>\n
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