{"id":85923,"date":"2020-09-21T20:13:55","date_gmt":"2020-09-21T10:13:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=85923"},"modified":"2020-09-21T20:13:55","modified_gmt":"2020-09-21T10:13:55","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e7%9a%84%e6%9c%ba%e5%99%a8%e5%87%ba%e5%8f%a3%e9%87%8d%e6%96%b0%e7%84%95%e5%8f%91%e7%94%9f%e6%9c%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=85923","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u673a\u5668\u51fa\u53e3\u91cd\u65b0\u7115\u53d1\u751f\u673a"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div class=\"content_\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u53bb\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u673a\u5668\u627f\u53d7\u7740\u6765\u81ea\u56db\u9762\u516b\u65b9\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u6b63\u5728\u6324\u538b\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u5176\u5b83\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u4e5f\u5728\u5347\u6e29\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5230\u4e862020\u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u5168\u7403\u51fa\u53e3\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u4ee5\u5f80\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u8981\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u4e00\u573a\u6e90\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u5883\u5185\u7684\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6253\u51fb\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u7535\u5b50\u4ea7\u54c1\u548c\u533b\u7597\u8bbe\u5907\u3002\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u578b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u9677\u5165\u56f0\u5883\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u7e41\u8363\u652f\u6491\u7740\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u65e9\u65e5\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u4f18\u52bf\u80fd\u5426\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\u540e\u7ee7\u7eed\u5b58\u5728?<\/p>\n<p>\u725b\u6d25\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u9662(Oxford Economics)\u548cHaver Analytics\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u603b\u4f53\u51fa\u53e3\u91cf\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u5168\u7403\u51fa\u53e3\u4e2d\u6240\u5360\u7684\u4efd\u989d(\u4e0e\u5176\u5b83\u5927\u578b\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd\u76f8\u6bd4)\u57284\u6708\u4efd\u8dc3\u5347\u81f3\u903e18%\uff0c7\u6708\u4efd\u7565\u6709\u56de\u843d\u81f315.9%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u725b\u6d25\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u9662(Oxford Economics)\u7684\u9ad8\u8def\u6613(Louis Kuijs)\u8868\u793a:\u201c\u73b0\u5728\u5c31\u5426\u5b9a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u8fd8\u4e3a\u65f6\u8fc7\u65e9\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u201c\u57fa\u672c\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u79f0\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4efd\u989d\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u6682\u65f6\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u4e9b\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u2026\u2026\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f7f\u67d0\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u5176\u5b83\u5730\u533a\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e1c\u4e9a\u51fa\u53e3\u66f4\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u53cd\u5f39\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5168\u7403\u9700\u6c42\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u4e1c\u4e9a\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53f0\u6e7e\u5730\u533a8\u6708\u4efd\u51fa\u53e3\u8fbe\u5230\u5386\u53f2\u6700\u9ad8\u5355\u6708\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4e3a\u7535\u5b50\u5143\u4ef6\u548cIT\u53ca\u901a\u8baf\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002\u5728\u97e9\u56fd\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u901a\u4fe1\u6280\u672f\u4ea7\u54c1\u51fa\u53e3\u57284\u6708\u4efd\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u540e\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb3\u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\u5747\u51fa\u73b0\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"\"><img class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/wsdigest.com\/photo\/2020_9\/1200zz_8747_export.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"100%\" \/>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"content_\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u81ea\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u611f\u67d3\u62a5\u544a\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4ee4\u5b83\u4eec\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\u4eca\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u5f53\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u8513\u5ef6\u800c\u9677\u5165\u6df7\u4e71\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5c01\u9501\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u7ecf\u653e\u677e\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u3001\u53f0\u6e7e\u5730\u533a\u548c\u97e9\u56fd\u7684\u65b0\u589e\u75c5\u4f8b\u4ecd\u8fdc\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e3a\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u5168\u7403\u6d88\u8d39\u6a21\u5f0f\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u94fa\u5e73\u4e86\u9053\u8def\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u53f0\u6e7e\u548c\u97e9\u56fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u7535\u5b50\u4ea7\u54c1\u51fa\u53e3\u98d9\u5347\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u524d7\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u533b\u7597\u8bbe\u5907\u51fa\u53e3\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u957f\u30028\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u987a\u5dee\u8fbe\u5230342\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e3a2018\u5e7411\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6cd5\u56fd\u5916\u8d38\u94f6\u884c(Natixis)\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6 Trinh Nguyen \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u5168\u7403\u8868\u73b0\u5b58\u5728\u5206\u6b67\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u5728\u97e9\u56fd\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u53cd\u6620\uff0c\u8be5\u56fd\u7535\u5b50\u548c\u533b\u7597\u6d88\u8d39\u4ea7\u54c1\u8868\u73b0\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u822a\u8fd0\u548c\u6c7d\u8f66\u7b49\u201c\u91cd\u5de5\u4e1a\u201d\u5219\u4e3e\u6b65\u7ef4\u8270\u3002\u5728\u65e5\u672c\uff0c8\u6708\u4efd\u51fa\u53e3\u540c\u6bd4\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u516d\u4e2a\u6708\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"content_\">\n<p>\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u9ad8\u8def\u6613\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u201c\u65e0\u6cd5\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u201d\u3002\u4f46\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u79f0\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u53cd\u5e94\u4e5f\u8981\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u201c\u5bcc\u6709\u521b\u4e1a\u7cbe\u795e\u548c\u7075\u6d3b\u7684\u201d\u4f01\u4e1a\u3002\u201c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u56fd\u6709\u7684\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u603b\u4f53\u51fa\u53e3\u80fd\u591f\u9002\u5e94\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u559c\u5fe7\u53c2\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e7f\u4e1c\u4e00\u5bb6\u73a9\u5177\u5382\u7684\u9500\u552e\u7ecf\u7406\u9648\u53ef\u6b23(Kexin Chen)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u8ba2\u5355\u6b63\u5728\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u4f46\u5979\u627f\u8ba4\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u751f\u610f\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u8270\u96be\u3002\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u6307\u671b\u7740\u9ed1\u8272\u661f\u671f\u4e94\u548c\u5723\u8bde\u8282\u7684(\u8ba2\u5355)\uff0c\u201d\u5979\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u6709\u8ff9\u8c61\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e1c\u4e9a\u51fa\u53e3\u7e41\u8363\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u53d7\u5230\u5bf9\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u3002\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5408\u540c\u82af\u7247\u5236\u9020\u5546\u53f0\u6e7e\u79ef\u4f53\u7535\u8def\u5236\u9020\u80a1\u4efd\u6709\u9650\u516c\u53f8(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0:\u53f0\u79ef\u7535)\u4e0a\u6708\u5411\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\u6b63\u5728\u589e\u52a0\u5e93\u5b58\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u62c5\u5fc3\u65b0\u7684Covid-19\u611f\u67d3\u6d6a\u6f6e\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u6b21\u6270\u4e71\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u53f0\u6e7e\u5730\u533a\u548c\u97e9\u56fd\uff0c\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u5b9e\u65bd\u6700\u65b0\u5236\u88c1\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u534e\u4e3a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4e5f\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u51fa\u53e3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7e41\u8363\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u662f\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u6682\u65f6\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u91ce\u6751\u8bc1\u5238(Nomura)\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u523a\u6fc0\u8ba1\u5212\u5e2e\u52a9\u63d0\u632f\u4e86\u5bf9\u7b14\u8bb0\u672c\u7535\u8111\u7b49\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u66f4\u4e3a\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u4f9b\u5e94\u3002\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\u6708\u6062\u590d\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u5de5\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u76f8\u6bd4\u4ecd\u7136\u75b2\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u667a\u5e93\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u5173\u7cfb\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(Council on Foreign Relations)\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u5e03\u62c9\u5fb7\u2022\u585e\u6cfd\u5c14(Brad Setser)\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u523a\u6fc0\u529b\u5ea6\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u4f9d\u8d56\u51fa\u53e3\u6765\u63a8\u52a8\u81ea\u8eab\u590d\u82cf\u3002\u201d\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u201c\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u987a\u5dee\u6b63\u5927\u5e45\u8f6c\u5411\u4e9a\u6d32\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u987a\u5dee\u5c06\u5f15\u53d1\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u5373\u4ece\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u652f\u6491\u5168\u7403\u9700\u6c42\u65b9\u9762\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u6325\u5e94\u6709\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"content_\">\n<p>[<b>\u00a0\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u6587\u6458\u8bd1 &#8211; \u539f\u6587 Financial Time<\/b>\u00a0&#8212; 2020\u5e749\u670821\u65e5]<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; \u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u53bb\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u673a\u5668\u627f\u53d7\u7740\u6765\u81ea\u56db\u9762\u516b\u65b9\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u6b63\u5728\u6324\u538b\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u5176\u5b83\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u4e5f\u5728\u5347\u6e29\u3002 \u5230\u4e862020\u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u5168\u7403\u51fa\u53e3\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":85924,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[4,10],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85923"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=85923"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85923\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/85924"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=85923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=85923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=85923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}