{"id":86821,"date":"2020-10-05T18:23:25","date_gmt":"2020-10-05T07:23:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=86821"},"modified":"2020-10-05T18:23:25","modified_gmt":"2020-10-05T07:23:25","slug":"%e5%8e%bb%e5%b9%b4%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e7%a0%94%e5%8f%91%e8%8a%b1%e8%b4%b9%e5%88%9b%e7%ba%aa%e5%bd%95%e7%9a%842-2%e4%b8%87%e4%ba%bf-%e4%bd%86%e8%a6%81%e6%83%b3%e9%80%83%e8%84%b1%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xiongmaotimes.com\/?p=86821","title":{"rendered":"\u53bb\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u7814\u53d1\u82b1\u8d39\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u76842.2\u4e07\u4ebf \u4f46\u8981\u60f3\u9003\u8131\u7f8e\u56fd\u627c\u6740\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u505a\u66f4\u591a"},"content":{"rendered":"
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[\u00a0\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u6587\u6458\u8bd1 – \u539f\u6587 SCMP<\/b>\u00a0— 2020\u5e7410\u67085\u65e5]<\/p>\n

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\u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u65e0\u8bba\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u591a\u6570\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u7ade\u4e89\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u7f13\u548c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u5317\u4eac\u65b9\u9762\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u52a0\u5927\u8ffd\u8d76\u529b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u6280\u90e8\u4e0a\u5468\u518d\u6b21\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u5c06\u8ba4\u771f\u5ba1\u89c6\u5982\u4f55\u8bc4\u4f30\u79d1\u7814\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u91cd\u70b9\u653e\u5728\u201c\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7ee9\u6548\u201d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u8ba1\u7b97\u8bba\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5f20\u4e1a\u6587\u8bf4:\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u53c2\u8003\u8fd9\u56db\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u4e2d\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u54ea\u4e2a\u6742\u5fd7\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f60\u600e\u4e48\u80fd\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u201d\u201c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5224\u65ad\u53ea\u80fd\u5728\u975e\u5e38\u5c0f\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u505a\u51fa\uff0c\u516c\u4f17\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u505a\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u548c\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6b63\u5bfb\u6c42\u5728\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u7b49\u4e00\u4e9b\u6838\u5fc3\u6280\u672f\u4e0a\u5b9e\u73b0\u66f4\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u81ea\u7ed9\u81ea\u8db3\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u79fb\u52a8\u7f51\u7edc\u7b49\u65b0\u5174\u9886\u57df\u53d6\u5f97\u9886\u5148\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u534e\u76db\u987f\u7684\u7981\u8fd0\u6216\u53d7\u63a7\u6280\u672f\u6e05\u5355\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u4f5c\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u9700\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u9662(CAS)\u9662\u957f\u767d\u6625\u793c\u672c\u6708\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5e0c\u671b\u907f\u514d\u5728\u6280\u672f\u4e0a\u201c\u88ab\u627c\u6740\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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\u4e2d\u56fd\u9ad8\u5c42\u591a\u6b21\u547c\u5401\u63d0\u9ad8\u6838\u5fc3\u6280\u672f\u7684\u81ea\u7ed9\u81ea\u8db3\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u5728\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u7ade\u4e89\u3001\u5355\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u4fdd\u62a4\u4e3b\u4e49\u9762\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u81ea\u5df1\u60f3\u529e\u6cd5\u5347\u7ea7\u3001\u521b\u65b0\u3001\u4ece\u96f6\u5f00\u59cb\u53d6\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u201d\u5b98\u65b9\u901a\u8baf\u793e\u65b0\u534e\u793e\u57289\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u79d1\u5b66\u8bba\u575b\u4e0a\u63f4\u5f15\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u8bdd\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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\u6839\u636e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e09\u5bb6\u653f\u5e9c\u673a\u6784\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u53d1\u652f\u51fa\u8fbe\u5230\u4e862.2\u4e07\u4ebf\u5143\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01(\u54083240\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143)\uff0c\u6253\u7834\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u79c1\u8425\u548c\u516c\u5171\u90e8\u95e8\u3002\u8fd9\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fdGDP\u76842.23%\uff0c\u53c8\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u7814\u53d1\u652f\u51fa\u65b9\u9762\u8d76\u4e0a\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5e76\u4eab\u6709\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u76f8\u5bf9\u5ec9\u4ef7\u548c\u96c6\u4f53\u3001\u957f\u671f\u89c4\u5212\u7b49\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u4f46\u201c\u8131\u94a9\u201d\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u80fd\u66b4\u9732\u51fa\u5176\u5f31\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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\u8bfa\u4e01\u6c49\u5927\u5b66\u5b81\u6ce2\u6821\u533a\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u653f\u7b56\u4e13\u5bb6\u66f9\u806a\u8868\u793a:\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u4e8e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6210\u672c\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4eba\u624d\u57f9\u517b\u548c\u96c6\u4f53\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\u5c06\u52a0\u5f3a\u519b\u4e8b\u548c\u592a\u7a7a\u63a2\u7d22\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u9879\u56fd\u5bb6\u7814\u53d1\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u53cd\u51fb\uff0c\u5e76\u5229\u7528\u8054\u90a6\u6743\u529b\u5f00\u53d1\u65b0\u7684\u5c16\u7aef\u6280\u672f\u3002<\/p>\n

8\u6708\uff0c\u767d\u5bab\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u91cf\u5b50\u79d1\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u6295\u8d4410\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u3002\u4eca\u5e745\u6708\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u4f1a\u8bae\u5458\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u8017\u8d441000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3001\u65e0\u6b62\u5c3d\u7684\u201c\u524d\u6cbf\u6cd5\u6848\u201d\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u201c\u52a0\u5f3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u9886\u57df\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u5bf9\u6297\u4e2d\u56fd\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b64\u524d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u7814\u7a76\u5c40(US congressional research service)\u64b0\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\u9898\u4e3a\u300a\u65b0\u5174\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f:\u56fd\u4f1a\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u548c\u95ee\u9898\u300b(Emerging Military Technologies: Background and Issues for Congress)\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u5148\u8fdb\u6280\u672f\u65b9\u9762\u5904\u4e8e\u9886\u5148\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6b63\u5728\u7a33\u6b65\u53d6\u5f97\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u8054\u5408\u4f1a(Federation of American Scientists)\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd2018\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u53d1\u652f\u51fa\u4e3a5800\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u8054\u5408\u4f1a\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u7814\u7a76\u670d\u52a1\u673a\u6784(congressional research service)\u7f16\u5236\u4e86\u76f8\u5173\u62a5\u544a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd2018\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u53d1\u652f\u51fa\u5360\u5e74GDP\u76842.8%\uff0c\u7565\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u540c\u671f2.1%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u7ec4\u7ec7(OECD)\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c2000\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u4e3a2.6%\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a0.9%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u968f\u7740\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb\u4e0d\u65ad\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u6de1\u5316\u4e00\u4e9b\u8ffd\u8d76\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5236\u90202025\u300b\u5de5\u4e1a\u84dd\u56fe\u548c\u65e8\u5728\u5438\u5f15\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u4f18\u79c0\u4eba\u624d\u56de\u56fd\u7684\u5343\u4eba\u8ba1\u5212\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b65\u4f10\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u653e\u7f13\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u63a8\u51fa\u4e861.4\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u65b0\u79d1\u6280\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4ee5\u63a8\u52a8\u4ece5G\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5230\u81ea\u52a8\u9a7e\u9a76\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4f18\u52bf\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u4e3a\u5176\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\u5f00\u53d1\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u201d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4eba\u667a\u5e93(economist Intelligence Unit)\u9996\u5e2d\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u82cf\u60a6\u8868\u793a\u3002\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u56f4\u7ed5\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f18\u52bf\u5236\u5b9a\u79d1\u6280\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u786e\u4fdd\u6295\u8d44\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u540c\u6d4e\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u5f20\u6559\u6388\u63d0\u9192\u8bf4\uff0c\u96c6\u4f53\u4e3b\u4e49\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u5bf9\u79d1\u5b66\u53d1\u5c55\u91c7\u53d6\u81ea\u7531\u548c\u96c6\u4f53\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u6709\u597d\u5904\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u90fd\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u3002\u96c6\u4f53\u529b\u91cf\u5728\u5e94\u7528\u5de5\u7a0b\u9879\u76ee\u4e2d\u6548\u679c\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u5173\u6ce8\u5f53\u4e0b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5173\u6ce8\u9700\u8981\u957f\u671f\u52aa\u529b\u548c\u79ef\u7d2f\u7684\u672a\u6765\u95ee\u9898\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7a33\u6b65\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5927\u5b66\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784\u5217\u5165\u201c\u9ed1\u540d\u5355\u201d(\u5373\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u5b9e\u4f53\u540d\u5355\u201d)\uff0c\u8fd9\u52a0\u5927\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7d27\u8feb\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c(\u7ecf\u6d4e)\u8131\u94a9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8feb\u4f7f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ece\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u9ad8\u901f\u5217\u8f66\u4e0a\u8df3\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u4f9d\u9760\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u201d\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u82af\u7247\u3001\u64cd\u4f5c\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u5c16\u7aef\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u8bbe\u5907\u65b9\u9762\u4ecd\u7136\u4f9d\u8d56\u5916\u56fd\u6280\u672f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u534e\u76db\u987f\u4e54\u6cbb\u6566\u5927\u5b66\u667a\u5e93\u5b89\u5168\u4e0e\u65b0\u5174\u6280\u672f\u4e2d\u5fc3(CSET)\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u5854\u4f26\u00b7\u67e5\u5e03\u62c9\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5371\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n

\u67e5\u5e03\u62c9\u8868\u793a:\u201c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u5728\u8054\u5408\u548c\u591a\u8fb9\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u63a7\u5236\u5173\u952e\u7684\u2018\u74f6\u9888\u2019\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u957f\u671f\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u96c4\u5fc3\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

\u5f20\u6559\u6388\u8868\u793a:\u201c\u6211\u5bf9(\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u7684)\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u8bbe\u5907\u683c\u5916\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4efb\u4f55\u7ef4\u4fee\u670d\u52a1\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u7279\u6b8a\u8bb8\u53ef\u8bc1\u3002\u201d\u53bb\u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u6240\u5728\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u88ab\u5217\u5165\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u52a1\u90e8\u7684\u201c\u672a\u7ecf\u6838\u5b9e\u540d\u5355\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u8868\u793a:\u201c\u5f88\u96be\u627e\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bbe\u5907\u5236\u9020\u5546\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec(\u5728\u8d28\u91cf\u4e0a)\u4ecd\u843d\u540e\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9650\u5236\u5728\u7f8e\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u9876\u5c16\u79d1\u5b66\u4eba\u624d\u7b7e\u8bc1\u7684\u4e3e\u63aa\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u5317\u4eac\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8ffd\u8d76\u52aa\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

CSET\u7814\u7a76\u5458 Zachary Arnold \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e3e\u63aa\u201c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5c06\u9876\u5c16\u79d1\u5b66\u4eba\u624d\u5e26\u56de\u4e2d\u56fd\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u8865\u5145\u79f0\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u7814\u53d1\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u5305\u62ec\u201c\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u6280\u672f\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u8f6c\u79fb\u548c\u9002\u5e94\u6d77\u5916\u521b\u65b0\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u4e54\u2022\u62dc\u767b(Joe Biden)\u8d62\u5f97\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u5e94\u6307\u671b\u5176\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u6218\u4e89\u4f1a\u6709\u6240\u7f13\u548c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5927\u5b66(University of Washington)\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Economic Policy Research Center)\u7684 Gregory Tassey \u8868\u793a:\u201c\u65e0\u8bba\u8c01\u83b7\u80dc\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u9886\u57df(\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u91cf\u5b50\u79d1\u5b66)\u90fd\u5c06\u5f97\u5230\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u4f46\u62dc\u767b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u6e90\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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