\u3010\u718a\u732b\u65f6\u62a5\u8baf\u3011\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7275\u52a8\u4e16\u754c\u4eba\u5fc3\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6765\u81ea\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u5c06\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u572811\u67084\u65e5\u6b63\u5f0f\u9000\u51fa\u4e86\u201c\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u8bae\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u81f3\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6210\u4e3a\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u5f0f\u9000\u51fa\u201c\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u8bae\u201d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u8fd9\u8ddd\u79bb\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e2017\u5e746\u6708\u5ba3\u5e03\u9000\u51fa\u8be5\u534f\u8bae\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e86\u4e09\u5e74\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u56fd\u9000\u51fa\u201c\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u8bae\u201d\u610f\u8c13\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u53c8\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\u65b0\u627f\u8bfa\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u63a7\u5236\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u53c8\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f<\/p>\n
1\uff09\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u201c\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u8bae\u201d\uff1f<\/p>\n
2015\u5e7412\u670812\u65e5\uff0c\u8054\u5408\u56fd195\u4e2a\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u5728\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u5cf0\u4f1a\u4e2d\u901a\u8fc7\u201c\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u8bae\u201d\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u5171\u540c\u904f\u963b\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e00\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5404\u56fd\u5c06\u5171\u540c\u52aa\u529b\u5c06\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u589e\u5e45\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u8fdc\u4f4e\u4e8e\u6444\u6c0f2\u5ea6\u5e76\u5c3d\u529b\u9650\u5236\u57281.5\u5ea6\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u662f\u6709\u53f2\u4ee5\u6765\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u666e\u904d\u6027\u548c\u6cd5\u5f8b\u7ea6\u675f\u529b\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u534f\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n
2 \uff09\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u9000\u51fa\uff1f
\n\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u5ba3\u5e03\u9000\u51fa\u201c\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u8bae\u201d\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u201c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5c65\u884c\u6211\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u516c\u6c11\u7684\u5e84\u4e25\u804c\u8d23\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u534f\u8bae\u201c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
2019\u5e7411\u67084\u65e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\u84ec\u4f69\u5965\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u4ea4\u9000\u51fa\u534f\u8bae\u901a\u77e5\u7684\u5f53\u5929\u53d1\u8868\u58f0\u660e\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u8bae\u201c\u7ed9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5de5\u4eba\u3001\u5546\u754c\u548c\u7eb3\u7a0e\u4eba\u9020\u6210\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d1f\u62c5\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7279\u6717\u666e\u603b\u7edf\u57282016\u5e74\u7684\u7ade\u9009\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c06\u9000\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e00\u534f\u8bae\u4e0e\u590d\u82cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u7164\u70ad\u548c\u77f3\u6cb9\u5728\u5185\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u4ea7\u4e1a\u6302\u94a9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u8be5\u534f\u8bae\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9075\u5b88\u534f\u8bae\u9650\u5236\u78b3\u6392\u653e\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u50cf\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5374\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u53d7\u9650\u5236\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\u3002<\/p>\n
3\uff09 \u7f8e\u56fd\u9000\u51fa\u534f\u8bae\u9020\u6210\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f
\n\u6765\u81ea\u4f2f\u5229\u5179\u4ee3\u8868\u5c0f\u578b\u5c9b\u56fd\u8054\u76df\u53c2\u52a0\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u8c08\u5224\u7684\u5361\u6d1b\u65af\u00b7\u5bcc\u52d2\uff08Carlos Fuller\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9000\u51fa\u5bf9\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u8bae\u7edd\u5bf9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c89\u91cd\u6253\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u90a3\u4e48\u52aa\u529b\u786e\u4fdd\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u5728\u534f\u8bae\u4e2d\u4f5c\u51fa\u8ba9\u6b65\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u5931\u53bb\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u611f\u89c9\u662f\u5168\u76d8\u5931\u8d25\u4e86\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u9650\u5236\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\uff0c\u52302010\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\u5c06\u5347\u9ad84.2\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u91cc\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u5f97\u5230\u5b8c\u5168\u6267\u884c\uff0c\u52302100\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u5347\u6e29\u5e45\u5ea6\u5c06\u63a7\u5236\u57283.3\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9000\u51fa\uff0c\u5347\u6e29\u5e45\u5ea6\u5c06\u8fbe\u52303.6\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n
4\uff09 \u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u6548\u4eff\u7f8e\u56fd\u9000\u51fa\uff1f
\n\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5ba3\u5e03\u9000\u51fa\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5e74\u591a\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u63d0\u51fa\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5f53\u5e74\u8d1f\u8d23\u82f1\u56fd\u548c\u6b27\u76df\u53c2\u52a0\u534f\u8bae\u5168\u7403\u8c08\u5224\u7684\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u8d1d\u8328\uff08Peter Betts\uff09\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u82f1\u56fd\u7687\u5bb6\u6218\u7565\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08Chatham House\uff09\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u56fd\u5bb6\u4f1a\u6b65\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u540e\u5c18\u9000\u51fa\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u8bae\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb\u56db\u5e74\u6ca1\u6709\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5e94\u8be5\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u4e0d\u8fc7\u6709\u89c2\u5bdf\u4eba\u58eb\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9000\u51fa\u534f\u8bae\u5c06\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u91c7\u53d6\u62d6\u5ef6\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u5219\u8868\u793a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u95ee\u9898\u523b\u4e0d\u5bb9\u7f13\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5e94\u8be5\u5feb\u9a6c\u52a0\u97ad\u843d\u5b9e\u534f\u8bae\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6d88\u6781\u62d6\u5ef6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u968f\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u603b\u7edf\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u62dc\u767b\u5728\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u83b7\u80dc\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u4f20\u5f00\uff0c\u5916\u754c\u671f\u5f85\u4ed6\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u91cd\u65b0\u52a0\u5165\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5305\u62ec\u6c99\u7279\u3001\u79d1\u5a01\u7279\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5728\u5185\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u77f3\u6cb9\u5927\u56fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u6709\u610f\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u91c7\u53d6\u540c\u6837\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5361\u6d1b\u65af\u00b7\u5bcc\u52d2\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u201c\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u673a\u4f1a\u770b\u770b\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ece\u534f\u8bae\u4e2d\u62ff\u5230\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u597d\u5904\u7684\u6761\u6b3e\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u9000\u51fa\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u8fd8\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u5e0c\u671b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9000\u51fa\u80fd\u8ba9\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u66f4\u52a0\u56e2\u7ed3\uff0c\u4e5f\u7ed9\u540e\u8d77\u4e4b\u79c0\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u627f\u62c5\u8d77\u4e16\u754c\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\u3002<\/p>\n
5\uff09\u7f8e\u56fd\u9000\u51fa\u540e\u8fd8\u80fd\u91cd\u65b0\u52a0\u5165\u5417\uff1f
\n\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u867d\u7136\u53ea\u5360\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u603b\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u7684\u7ea615%\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9000\u51fa\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u5b9a\uff0c\u653e\u5f03\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u884c\u52a8\u4e2d\u7684\u5168\u7403\u9886\u5bfc\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u65e2\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u516c\u4fe1\u529b\u4e5f\u7834\u574f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u58f0\u8a89\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u603b\u7edf\u7ade\u9009\u4eba\u62dc\u767b\u591a\u6b21\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u6210\u529f\u5f53\u9009\u540e\u5c06\u5bfb\u6c42\u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c3d\u5feb\u52a0\u5165\u8fd9\u4e00\u534f\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n
6\uff09\u4e2d\u56fd\u56e0\u7d20<\/p>\n
2014\u5e7411\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u8bbf\u95ee\u4e2d\u56fd\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u51fa\u4eba\u610f\u6599\u5730\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7b7e\u7f72\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u534f\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5965\u5df4\u9a6c\u5728\u4e0e\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5171\u540c\u4e3b\u6301\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u7279\u522b\u7684\u8d23\u4efb\uff0c\u5728\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6027\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u8d77\u9886\u5bfc\u4f5c\u7528\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u4efd\u534f\u8bae\u4e4b\u540e\u6210\u4e3a2015\u5e7412\u6708\u7b7e\u7f72\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7ec4\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n
\u300a\u6cd5\u5170\u514b\u798f\u6c47\u62a5\u300b\u9a7b\u4e0a\u6d77\u8bb0\u8005\u4ea8\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u5b89\u80af\u5e03\u6717\u5fb7\uff08Hendrik Ankenbrand\uff09\u66fe\u7ecf\u8fd9\u6837\u5206\u6790\u8fc7\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ef4\u62a4\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9000\u51fa\u6b63\u597d\u7b26\u5408\u4e2d\u56fd\u8ffd\u6c42\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u56fd\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u96c4\u5fc3\uff0c\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e0c\u671b\u5411\u4e16\u754c\u5c55\u793a\u81ea\u5df1\u4f5c\u4e3a\u503c\u5f97\u4fe1\u8d56\u7684\u5927\u56fd\u5f62\u8c61\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5ba3\u544a\u7f8e\u56fd\u72ec\u9738\u4e16\u754c\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u3002\u2026\u2026\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u73af\u5883\u4fdd\u62a4\uff0c\u6050\u6015\u6ca1\u6709\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u653f\u6cbb\u9886\u57df\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u81ea\u5df1\u53d6\u4ee3\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u5730\u4f4d\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
2020\u5e749\u6708\u4e3e\u884c\u7684\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5927\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u7528\u89c6\u9891\u8054\u7ebf\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u53d1\u8868\u8bb2\u8bdd\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u529b\u4e89\u4e8e2030\u5e74\u524d\u8fbe\u5230\u5cf0\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e89\u53d62060\u5e74\u524d\u5b9e\u73b0\u78b3\u4e2d\u548c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6279\u8bc4\u8005\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u627f\u8bfa\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u6700\u7ec8\u5b9e\u73b0\u8868\u793a\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u4f46BBC\u73af\u5883\u4e8b\u52a1\u8bb0\u8005\u9a6c\u7279\u00b7\u9a6c\u683c\u62c9\u65af\uff08Matt McGrath\uff09\u66fe\u5f15\u8ff0\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u7684\u8fd9\u756a\u8868\u6001\uff0c\u662f\u60f3\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u613f\u89e3\u51b3\u6c14\u5019\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5360\u9886\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5927\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8bb2\u8bdd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u6297\u75ab\u3001\u73af\u5883\u6c61\u67d3\u3001\u8d38\u6613\u95ee\u9898\u63d0\u51fa\u5c16\u9510\u6279\u8bc4\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u9000\u51fa\u7247\u9762\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u5b9a\u540e\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u5e45\u5ea6\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u53c2\u52a0\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u4e0e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5f3a\u8c03\u7f8e\u4e2d\u5bf9\u7acb\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f18\u5148\u7cbe\u795e\u5f62\u6210\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u5929\u7684\u8bb2\u8bdd\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u8bae\u5927\u52a0\u80af\u5b9a\uff0c\u79f0\u4e4b\u201d\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u7eff\u8272\u4f4e\u78b3\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5927\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u662f\u4fdd\u62a4\u5730\u7403\u5bb6\u56ed\u9700\u8981\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u9650\u5ea6\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u5fc5\u987b\u8fc8\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u201c<\/p>\n
\u5bf9\u7f8e\u3001\u4e2d\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5728\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5927\u4f1a\u7684\u8bb2\u8bdd\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u300a\u5916\u4ea4\u5bb6\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\uff08The Diplomat\uff09\u7f16\u8f91\u838e\u6717\u00b7\u63d0\u827e\u5179\uff08Shannon Tiezzi\uff09\u64b0\u6587\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u8fdc\u666f\uff0c\u201c\u4ed6\u628a\u4e2d\u56fd\u63cf\u7ed8\u6210\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u548c\u6574\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
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