[ \u534e\u5c14\u8857\u6587\u6458\u8bd1 – \u539f\u6587 SCMP — 2020\u5e7412\u670825\u65e5]<\/p>\n
\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u201cQuad\u201d\u4ecd\u7136\u662f4\u4e2a\u6210\u5458\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u7ec4\u6210\u56db\u65b9\u5b89\u5168\u5bf9\u8bdd(Quadrilateral Security Dialogue)\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u8054\u76df\u65e9\u5728\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u524d\u5c31\u63d0\u51fa\u8fc7\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u968f\u7740\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5357\u6d77\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u5177\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8054\u76df\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u65b0\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u56db\u65b9\u6210\u5458\u4e8e2017\u5e74\u5171\u540c\u8fbe\u6210\u4e00\u9879\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u81ea\u7531\u3001\u5f00\u653e\u3001\u7e41\u8363\u548c\u5305\u5bb9\u7684\u5370\u592a\u5730\u533a\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u56fd\u73b0\u5728\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u63a8\u52a8\u6b63\u5f0f\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u8fd8\u5728\u5bfb\u6c42\u6269\u5927\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u8ba9\u66f4\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fdb\u5165\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\u8fc8\u514b\u2022\u84ec\u4f69\u5965(Mike Pompeo)\u572810\u6708\u4efd\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5171\u540c\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b89\u5168\u7f51\uff0c\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u79cd\u60f3\u6cd5\u88ab\u6846\u5b9a\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u4e9a\u6d32\u5317\u7ea6\u201d(Asian Nato)\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e8c\u6218\u540e\u4e3a\u5bf9\u6297\u82cf\u8054\u96c6\u56e2\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u8de8\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u8054\u76df(transatlantic alliance)\u4e3a\u84dd\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4efb\u4f55\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8054\u76df\u8981\u60f3\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8054\u76df(Asean)\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u652f\u6301\u90fd\u662f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u5904\u4e8e\u6709\u6548\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u6218\u7565\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u89c2\u5bdf\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u7b7e\u7f72\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u8054\u76df\u6301\u6000\u7591\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u5438\u53d6\u4e86\u51b7\u6218\u7684\u6559\u8bad\uff0c\u800c\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6bd4\u4ee5\u5f80\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u5019\u90fd\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea4\u7ec7\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e1c\u76df\u8bde\u751f\u4e8e1967\u5e74\u51b7\u6218\u6700\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u5b83\u628a\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u3001\u6cf0\u56fd\u3001\u9a6c\u6765\u897f\u4e9a\u3001\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u805a\u96c6\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u548c\u6cf0\u56fd\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u5c24\u4e3a\u5f3a\u786c\u7684\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u5728\u8d8a\u5357\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u652f\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd \u3002<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u5728\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u82f1\u56fd\u5f00\u59cb\u4ece\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u64a4\u519b\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8981\u6c42\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u627f\u62c5\u8d77\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9632\u5fa1\u8d23\u4efb\uff0c\u4e1c\u76df\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u76df\u53cb\u7684\u4fdd\u62a4\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u5bf9\u6297\u524d\u82cf\u8054\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fd8\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u5916\u4ea4\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7531\u4e8e\u53ea\u80fd\u9760\u81ea\u5df1\u7ad9\u7740\uff0c\u4e1c\u76df\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u65e2\u4e0d\u4e0e\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u7684\u5927\u56fd\u7ed3\u76df\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4e0e\u4e4b\u4e3a\u654c\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e94\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u627f\u8bfa\u5c06\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u53d8\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u4e0d\u53d7\u4efb\u4f55\u5f62\u5f0f\u6216\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u52bf\u529b\u5e72\u6d89\u201d\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5e76\u201c\u6269\u5927\u5408\u4f5c\u9886\u57df\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u89c2\u5bdf\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u7eea\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u670910\u4e2a\u4e1c\u76df\u56fd\u5bb6\u62c5\u5fc3\u9677\u5165\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e9a\u6d32\u5317\u7ea6(Nato)\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u7ade\u4e89\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8d8a\u5357\u5916\u4ea4\u5b66\u9662(Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam)\u4e2d\u56fd\u5357\u6d77\u7814\u7a76\u6240(Institute for the South China Sea)\u6240\u957f Nguyen Hung Son \u672c\u6708\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u8bb2\u8bdd\u65f6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u5bf9\u4e9a\u6d32\u5317\u7ea6\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u6ca1\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u70ed\u60c5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u201c\u4e9a\u6d32\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ee5\u96f6\u548c\u535a\u5f08\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u770b\u5f85\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u201dNguyen \u5728\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u667a\u5e93\u74e6\u5c14\u4ee3\u4ff1\u4e50\u90e8(Valdai Club)\u4e9a\u6d32\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u201c\u4e1c\u76df\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0d\u613f\u52a0\u5165\u9488\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u6216\u4efb\u4f55\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u7684\u8054\u76df\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u62c5\u5fc3\u534e\u76db\u987f\u4f1a\u5bf9\u90a3\u4e9b\u62a5\u540d\u53c2\u52a0\u6269\u5927\u540e\u7684\u56db\u65b9\u4f1a\u8c08\u7684\u4eba\u505a\u51fa\u591a\u5927\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u3002<\/p>\n
\u201c\u5373\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd(\u5bf9\u4e9a\u6d32\u5317\u7ea6)\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u610f\u613f\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u5426\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u957f\u671f\u627f\u8bfa\u7ef4\u6301\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u610f\u613f?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u4e1c\u76df\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u8fd8\u5173\u5fc3\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u4e1c\u76df\u66f4\u52a0\u6ce8\u91cd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e1c\u76df\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5408\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5305\u62ec\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u548c\u65e5\u672c\uff0c\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u4e1c\u76df\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u3002<\/p>\n
\u968f\u7740\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u5728\u5168\u7403\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u4e1c\u76df\u4e5f\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u8d85\u8fc7\u6b27\u76df\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u4e0e\u6218\u7565\u4e2d\u5fc3(Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University)\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u5468\u6ce2\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e9a\u6d32\u76df\u53cb\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5408\u4f5c\u5bf9\u6297\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u60f3\u6311\u6218\u81ea\u5df1\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f19\u4f34\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u52a0\u5165\u56db\u65b9\u4f1a\u8c08\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7ed9\u4e1c\u76df\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e26\u6765\u4efb\u4f55\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u597d\u5904\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u653e\u5f03\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u800c\u52a0\u5165\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u5f88\u677e\u6563\u7684\u56db\u65b9\u4f1a\u8c08\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff0c\u52a0\u5165\u56db\u65b9\u4f1a\u8c08\u8fd8\u610f\u5473\u7740\u653e\u5f03\u4e1c\u76df\u5728\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u201c\u4e1c\u76df\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u5165\u56db\u65b9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u5bfb\u6c42\u4fdd\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u201d\u5468\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n
\u201c\u5b83\u4e0d\u4f1a\u52a0\u5165\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u52a9\u957f\u5927\u56fd\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u6210\u4e3a\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u573a\uff0c\u4e1c\u76df\u5c06\u5b8c\u5168\u5931\u53bb\u5728\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u4e1c\u76df\u8fd8\u662f\u8c28\u614e\u884c\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u66fc\u8c37\u5e74\u5ea6\u5cf0\u4f1a\u540e\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u5c55\u671b\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\uff0c\u8be5\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6ca1\u6709\u63d0\u53ca\u4efb\u4f55\u5927\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n
American University \u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u5b66\u6770\u51fa\u6559\u6388 Amitav Acharya \u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd\u6587\u4ef6\u8fd8\u6709\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u5927\u9057\u6f0f\u3002<\/p>\n
Acharya \u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u524d\u666f\u907f\u514d\u4f7f\u7528\u2018\u81ea\u7531\u2019\u4e00\u8bcd\uff0c\u4e2d\u65b9\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201c\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u2018\u822a\u884c\u81ea\u7531\u2019\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u534e\u76db\u987f\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u9886\u57df\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
Acharya \u4e5f\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u7ec4\u5efa\u5317\u7ea6\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5728\u56db\u65b9\u4f1a\u8c08\u5185\u90e8\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8054\u76df\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u666e\u904d\u611f\u77e5\u5230\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u4e2a\u8054\u76df\u6210\u5458\u4e0e\u76ee\u6807\u56fd\u5bb6\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u6210\u672c\u548c\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201c\u5373\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7b49\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u90fd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u611f\u5230\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5efa\u7acb\u5bf9\u6297\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8054\u76df\u800c\u6fc0\u6012\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u548c\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e5f\u4f1a\u505a\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
Acharya \u8bf4\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u7b49\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0d\u50cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u90a3\u6837\u60f3\u6fc0\u6012\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n
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